A 5% drop in wine exports could cost Verona 261 million euros

A slowdown in wine exports is reaching far beyond wineries in Verona, one of Italy’s most important wine hubs, where a new economic study says even a modest decline in overseas sales could erase hundreds of millions of euros from the wider local economy.

The findings were presented Monday at the Verona Chamber of Commerce, which commissioned the research from Economics Living Lab, a spin-off of the University of Verona’s Department of Economic Sciences. The study examined how weaker wine demand would affect not only producers, but also suppliers, workers, tax revenue and businesses tied to tourism and hospitality in a province where wine is deeply woven into economic life.

According to the study, a 5% drop in wine exports would translate into economic damage of about 261 million euros for Verona and its surrounding territory. If exports fall by around 7%, the loss would rise to 366 million euros. In more severe scenarios considered by the researchers, the damage could reach as much as 1.3 billion euros.

Professor Francesco Pecci, who presented the analysis at a forum on the future of wine, said the effects of weaker demand spread well beyond cellar doors. A contraction in demand, he said, creates not only direct losses but also indirect and induced effects that weigh on gross domestic product, household income and public finances.

The analysis is based on a social accounting matrix for the provincial economy. Under the 5% export decline scenario, researchers estimated that wine sales would fall by 53 million euros. That would then trigger a reduction of more than 186 million euros across sectors directly and indirectly linked to wine, along with lower labor and capital income. Together, those effects would reduce local GDP by 75.5 million euros, bringing the total economic hit to more than 261 million euros.

The 7% scenario closely reflects recent trade data. The Verona beverage sector posted a 7.4% export decline in the first quarter of 2026, according to figures cited at the event, and wine accounts for more than 90% of that category. Based on that level of contraction, the study said total losses for the Veronese economy would exceed 366 million euros.

The warning carries weight because Verona occupies an outsized place in Italian wine. The province is home to Valpolicella and also borders other major wine districts including Soave and Lake Garda. It hosts Vinitaly, one of the world’s best-known wine trade fairs, and local officials describe it as Italy’s leading province by wine export value and production value. The area also sees wine tourism as a strategic pillar for future growth.

The Verona Chamber of Commerce said the province has more than 7,000 winegrowers, over 24,000 hectares of vineyards, 15 DOC appellations and 5 DOCG appellations. Its wine sector generates 7.9% of provincial exports and contributes more than 10% of national exports in the category.

Paolo Arena, president of the Verona Chamber of Commerce, said the territory’s strength in production and exports is reinforced by wine tourism, which creates additional jobs and economic benefits. But he said structural difficulties facing the sector at global, national and local levels now require institutions and industry groups to study solutions that can protect one of Verona’s key industries.

Those pressures are not limited to Verona. Data presented by Carlo Flamini of the Unione Italiana Vini observatory showed that global wine consumption fell by 16% between 2019 and 2025, reaching 2.2 billion nine-liter cases. Consumption is expected to decline another 3% through 2029, with only slight growth forecast in premium and ultra-premium segments, which account for about 20% of total consumption.

That broader downturn matters for beverage producers because it shows how changes in drinking habits can ripple through an entire regional economy. In places where wine dominates local exports and tourism spending, weaker sales can affect distributors, restaurants, hotels and transport companies as much as growers and bottlers.

Regional officials are looking to tourism policy as one possible response. Dario Bond, agriculture commissioner for the Veneto region, said Veneto is working on a regional wine tourism law that it plans to bring before the regional council between September and October. He said the goal is to give businesses clearer rules while helping wineries expand hospitality offerings and reduce bureaucracy.

Bond also said institutions need to think about how to reconnect younger generations with wine as consumption habits change. He described wine tourism as an important opportunity for the territory that should be supported with appropriate tools.

Industry leaders used the Verona meeting to press for broader national action on supply management and market strategy. Giangiacomo Gallarati Scotti Bonaldi, president of Federdoc, said Italy must ask whether it is still sustainable to keep increasing vineyard potential by 1% each year through new planting authorizations or whether that mechanism should be suspended to restore balance between supply and demand.

He also argued that vine removal programs should be handled pragmatically and structurally if public money is used for them. At the same time, he warned against diverting too many resources away from international promotion just as new opportunities may be opening in Mercosur countries, Australia, the Far East and other emerging markets.

Alex Vantini, a member of the Verona Chamber’s executive board and president of Coldiretti Verona, said wine should not be viewed simply as an agricultural sector but as an economic engine that supports employment, tourism, services and commerce across the province. He called for stronger coordination across the supply chain and criticized bottle markups in some restaurants that exceed 400%, saying they risk pushing consumers away from wine.

His comments point to another challenge for drinks businesses: even when producers are under pressure from falling demand and tighter margins, pricing further down the chain can shape whether consumers continue buying wine in restaurants or shift spending elsewhere.

Verona is not dependent on wine alone; it also has strong logistics and manufacturing sectors and is known for cultural tourism centered on its historic core and opera season at the Arena. But the study’s message was that even a diversified city can feel broad economic pain when a flagship beverage industry weakens.

For other Italian regions where wine plays an even larger role in local income and employment, the implications may be sharper still. The case laid out in Verona suggests that export declines are not just a trade issue for wineries but a wider test for rural economies, hospitality businesses and public institutions tied to one of Italy’s most important beverage sectors.