Affordable Brandy Keeps the Global Market Growing as Cognac Slumps

The global brandy market is entering 2026 with a split profile, as strong demand for affordable bottles in large consumer markets offsets a prolonged downturn in Cognac, the French segment that still accounts for an outsized share of the category’s value.

That divide is reshaping how producers, distributors and retailers assess the business. In India, the Philippines, Brazil and other countries where brandy is a mass-market drink, lower-priced labels continue to post solid sales. At the higher end, Cognac is still working through excess inventory built up after the pandemic, weaker luxury demand in China and the United States, and trade tensions that have disrupted sales flows. The result is a category that can no longer be treated as a single market.

Available estimates place the broader global brandy market between $26 billion and $29 billion in 2026. Grand View Research values it at $26.9 billion and projects it will reach $35.2 billion by 2030, implying a compound annual growth rate of 6.8%. Other firms that focus more narrowly on Cognac and premium brandy put the 2026 figure closer to $14.9 billion to $15.6 billion. The gap reflects different definitions of what counts as brandy sales, including whether analysts measure retail sales, imported products or only premium segments. It also changes the relative weight assigned to each region.

Volume is even harder to measure because there is no single public annual series covering all brandy produced and consumed worldwide. The best open estimate places the 2026 market at about 169 million nine-liter cases, equal to roughly 1.52 billion liters. In 2025, total brandy volume slipped just 1%, while Cognac fell 16.2%, underscoring how much of the weakness is concentrated in higher-priced French bottles.

Cognac went through an exceptional cycle after 2020, helped by at-home consumption, gift buying and the reopening of international markets. Shipments climbed to 212.5 million bottles in 2022. Then came a correction. Volumes dropped to 165.3 million bottles in 2023, held near 166 million in 2024 and fell again to 141 million in 2025, when sales totaled €2.24 billion. Rémy Cointreau reported organic Cognac growth of 7.7% in its first fiscal quarter of 2026, driven by Asia-Pacific excluding China, offering some relief but not yet a full recovery.

Supply conditions are also tightening. The International Organization of Vine and Wine estimated that global vineyard area fell to seven million hectares in 2025. Wine production was 227 million hectoliters, down 13% from the decade average. For 2026, the first estimate for the Southern Hemisphere came in at 47 million hectoliters, down 3.1%. Extreme weather, shrinking vineyard area and efforts to align output with softer demand are limiting the supply of grapes and base wine used for distillation.

Trade data shows how different businesses coexist under the same category name. In 2024, China imported grape spirits and pomace spirits worth $1.2336 billion across 35 million liters, for an average value of $35.2 per liter. The Philippines imported 69.6 million liters worth $123.8 million, or just $1.8 per liter. The United Kingdom imported $135 million worth across six million liters, while Canada bought $66.9 million across three million liters. Japan paid close to $24.7 per liter and the United Arab Emirates about $22.8 per liter. China, Japan, Britain, Canada and Gulf markets buy prestige and imported value; the Philippines and parts of South Asia provide scale.

France remains at the center of high-value trade. In 2024 it exported Cognac and other wine spirits worth $3.435 billion. That position rests on the strength of Cognac as a geographic indication, on aged inventories accumulated over decades and on a commercial network built over generations. Spain retains an important role through Brandy de Jerez and companies with distribution across Europe, the Americas and the Philippines. Armenia maintains its own long-standing tradition, while Brazil, India and the Philippines contribute large domestic volumes.

Asia-Pacific captures both sides of the market better than any other region. India is one of the world’s largest brandy markets by case volume and has producers capable of moving millions of cases through local networks. Old Admiral, owned by Radico Khaitan, reached 10.9 million cases in 2025. Mansion House, from Tilaknagar Industries, sold 9.7 million cases, up 23.4%. McDowell’s Brandy rose to 1.6 million cases. In the Philippines, Emperador continues to dominate domestic brandy sales. China presents a different picture: it concentrates imported value, aspirational consumption and gift purchases, but demand has weakened because of economic caution, slower luxury spending and measures affecting European imports.

Brazil offers another model centered on accessible pricing and broad distribution. Dreher, owned by Campari Group, sold about 3.5 million cases in 2025, up 16.7% from a year earlier. Its performance reflects the resilience of affordable brandy with strong local recognition. In Mexico, imports reached $38.6 million in 2024 across 5.7 million liters, for an average value of $6.8 per liter, with Spanish brands holding a notable presence. In Africa, South Africa has an established production base while Nigeria, Angola and other markets offer room for midpriced labels depending on taxes, distribution systems and household purchasing power.

The United States remains North America’s main brandy market and one that strongly influences pricing trends and cocktail culture. In 2024, combined brandy and Cognac sales reached 11.7 million cases and $2.1 billion. Since 2003, total volume has risen 15%, but the super-premium segment has nearly tripled in size. That helps explain why major houses continue to defend their highest-margin labels despite current weakness: the challenge is no longer unlimited luxury growth but finding the right price points, reducing dependence on a few major cities and persuading consumers that premium bottles justify their cost.

Distribution patterns show how much of brandy consumption still happens at home. In 2023, grocery stores, liquor stores, convenience outlets and other off-premise channels accounted for about 73.9% of the market. Bars, restaurants and hotels hold more influence than their share suggests because they shape reputation, introduce cocktails and give consumers a chance to try unfamiliar labels before buying a bottle.

That influence remains important for international brands seeking visibility beyond retail shelves. Torres Brandy was named the top-selling brandy in international bars surveyed by Drinks International for the seventh straight year in 2026. Rémy Martin ranked first among Cognacs in just over 30% of those venues.

E-commerce has slowed from its pandemic surge but remains a stable route for discovery and purchases of bottles not always available in physical stores. IWSR expects online alcohol sales to exceed $36 billion by 2028. Airport retail is also recovering as travel rebounds across India, the Middle East and several European routes. Forecasts point to annual gains of 5% in volume and 7% in value between 2023 and 2028, supported by gifting demand, exclusive editions, miniatures and boxed sets.

Younger consumers have not abandoned alcohol altogether, but they are buying more selectively and mixing fewer categories on a single occasion than they did a few years ago. IWSR found that Generation Z reduced its average number of beverage types consumed from 2.8 to 1.8 over two years. For brandy producers that means they must explain more clearly where a spirit comes from, how it is aged, how it works in cocktails and why it deserves space in a shopping basket or on a back bar.

Brand performance reflects this fragmented landscape. Old Admiral and Mansion House lead by volume among brands with publicly available figures. Hennessy sold 5.8 million cases in 2025, down 7%, while Shustoff sold roughly a similar amount after rising 39%. Emperador remained listed as the leading brandy brand by sales in 2024 although it did not publish a directly comparable case figure for that period. Even so, leading labels account for only part of total global volume because national and regional brands still carry much of the category.

Corporate moves point to broader portfolios and new drinking occasions as companies adapt to slower growth at the top end of the market. Campari completed its acquisition of Courvoisier in 2024, adding a historic Cognac house to a portfolio that already included Dreher in Brazil’s mass segment. Bacardi entered Indian brandy with Good Man, a blend of French and Indian distillates aged at least two years in oak barrels. Hennessy introduced Very Special Cocktails in 2026 as its first ready-to-serve line aimed at easier consumption occasions.

In Spain’s Jerez region, producers continue to rely on the criaderas y solera aging system as a point of difference because it blends spirits of different ages to deliver consistency over time rather than vintage variation alone.

Sustainability has also become more central to marketing efforts, especially in hospitality channels where buyers increasingly ask about environmental practices alongside price and quality. Familia Torres has said it aims to cut carbon dioxide emissions per bottle by60% by2030 and reach neutrality before2040; its Torres Brandy Zero Challenge links the label with lower-impact practices in bars and restaurants.

Climate pressure gives those efforts added urgency because brandy depends on vineyards that can withstand hotter temperatures,

drought

and shifting harvest dates.

Martell is working with new grape varieties for possible use by2028 as warmer,

drier summers put pressure on Ugni Blanc,

the main grape used for Cognac.

Regulation adds another layer of uncertainty.

The European Union protects names such as Cognac and Brandy de Jerez through rules governing definition,

presentation

and labeling.

In China,

an antidumping investigation opened in January2024 ended in July2025 with duties of up to34

.

9% for five years,

although several major houses secured an alternative system tied to minimum prices.

The measure hit France hardest

and forced producers to redirect efforts toward other destinations.

In India,

tariffs

and state-level taxes continue to favor local production

and partnerships.

Aged inventory sums up both the opportunity

and risk facing producers.

Stocks matured over decades can support high prices

and allow blends that are difficult for rivals to replicate.

Emperador inherited reserves more than50 years old when it acquired former Spanish assets from Beam Suntory.

But inventory also ties up capital

and can become burdensome when demand weakens,

as French houses discovered when Chinese sales slowed.

Managing stock levels,

adjusting production

and shifting bottles between markets are likely to remain central issues over the next several years.

Forecasts through2030 point to a central scenario near$35 billion in value

and176 million nine-liter cases.

That path would require some improvement in China,

moderate performance in the United States,

stable retail conditions

and new growth from Asia,

Africa,

the Middle East

and travel retail.

A stronger scenario would lift value to$37

.

3 billion

and volume to183 million cases.

A weaker one,

marked by prolonged tariffs,

softer luxury demand

and agricultural strain,

would leave the business closer to$30

.

9 billion

and166 million cases.

For producers

and distributors,

the lesson from2026 is that one strategy no longer fits every country.

China requires price discipline

and careful inventory control.

India

and the Philippines reward scale,

local production

and broad distribution.

Brazil favors familiar,

affordable brands.

Britain,

Canada,

Japan

and the United Arab Emirates offer better conditions for higher-priced imported labels.

The future of brandy now depends less on Cognac alone than on a mix of local champions,

geographic indications,

ready-to-serve formats

and consumers who want clearer reasons to choose one bottle over another.”