2026-06-12
Global alcohol consumption is expected to decline for the next six years before returning to growth in 2031, according to new research from IWSR, the drinks data and analytics firm, pointing to a long transition for brewers, winemakers and spirits producers as demand shifts across regions and categories.
The study says worldwide alcohol volumes are on track to recover by 2035 to nearly the same level seen in 2025, leaving the market down just 1% over the full decade. IWSR said that stabilization from 2031 onward is likely to be driven by two main forces: a substantial rebalancing of the global market and continued growth in the world’s legal-drinking-age population.
That rebalancing is expected to move demand away from China, North America and Europe and toward India, South America and Africa over the next 10 years. In China, the number of servings of alcoholic beverages consumed in 2035 is projected to be 19% lower than in 2025. Other major declines over the same period are forecast in the United States, down 18%; Japan, down 15%; Germany, down 14%; and the United Kingdom, down 13%.
At the same time, several emerging markets are expected to post strong gains. Annual alcohol consumption from 2025 to 2035 is projected to rise 13% in Mexico, 15% in Vietnam, 26% in Colombia and 38% in India. In serving terms, India is expected to overtake the United States in 2032 and become the world’s second-largest alcohol market after China.
The report also points to moderation as a lasting trend, whether driven by lifestyle choices or economic pressure. By 2035, annual per-capita consumption of pure alcohol is expected to fall by half a liter. Even so, IWSR said the pace of decline is slowing. Over the same period, the population of legal-age consumers is projected to increase by 9%, enough to keep total global volume in 2035 only slightly below where it stood in 2025.
The category breakdown shows uneven pressure across the beverage business. Beer is expected to broadly follow the overall market, with global volume down 1% between 2025 and 2035. Wine faces the steepest drop, with volumes projected to fall 14%. Spirits are expected to prove more resilient, with a decline of 2%.
For wine producers in particular, the forecast underscores a difficult decade marked by weaker demand in mature markets and a sharper contraction than other major alcohol categories. For brewers and distillers, the figures suggest that future growth may depend less on traditional strongholds and more on adapting portfolios for faster-growing countries and changing drinking habits.
IWSR also released confirmed data for 2025 across the 160 markets it tracks. From 2024 to 2025, total global alcohol volume fell 2%. Beer volume declined 2%, wine dropped 5% and spirits fell 3%.
One segment moved in the opposite direction. Global ready-to-drink beverage volume rose 3% from 2024 to 2025, and IWSR forecasts that category will grow another 17% over the coming decade. The shift matters across the beverage sector because it suggests consumers are still spending on alcohol, but increasingly in formats that offer convenience, flavor variety and different alcohol strengths rather than in more established categories.
Marten Lodewijks, IWSR’s president and chief executive, said the expected stabilization in global alcohol volumes was positive for the industry but warned that significant challenges remain. Luke Tegner, IWSR’s chief operating officer for research and operations, said consumers in 2025 continued to seek new flavors, convenience and a range of alcohol levels suited to different drinking occasions.
That behavior is helping redirect consumption away from long-established categories such as wine and spirits toward ready-to-drink products. According to IWSR, global ready-to-drink consumption reached 1 billion nine-liter cases for the first time in 2025, with no sign of a near-term reversal.