U.S. wine sales will fall below 300 million cases in 2026

The U.S. wine market is on track to fall 3.5% in volume in 2026, extending a five-year slide and pushing the category below 300 million 9-liter cases for the first time in more than 15 years, according to the 2026 edition of Impact Databank’s U.S. wine market review and forecast.

The new projection points to a market that has not recovered from its 2020 peak, when U.S. wine volume reached about 344 million cases. Since then, consumption has moved lower each year. The latest estimate suggests that the decline is continuing even as some large brands still post gains and wine-based ready-to-drink products provide a measure of support.

The report says the drop would be steeper without wine-based cocktails, a segment that has grown quickly as drinkers shift toward convenience formats. Those products reached 18 million cases last year, led by brands including BeatBox and BuzzBallz Chillers. Excluding wine-based RTDs, the overall wine market decline this year would be closer to 5%, according to the forecast.

That detail matters across the beverage business because a shrinking wine market can affect purchasing plans, product mix and margins for producers, distributors and retailers. It may also push companies to lean harder on faster-growing segments, especially products that blur the line between traditional wine and flavored convenience drinks.

The pressure on wine comes as spirits, helped by RTDs, overtook wine in U.S. volume last year for the first time in four decades, according to the report. Even so, wine is also benefiting from the same consumer trend in part through wine-based cocktails, which have become one of the few clear growth engines inside the broader category.

The rise of those products has already changed the competitive rankings among major suppliers. Impact Databank said growth from BeatBox helped lift Anheuser-Busch to the No. 6 position among wine marketers in the United States. The company’s 2025 wine volume reached 7 million cases.

Among the largest wine marketers, Gallo remained far ahead of rivals with 82.3 million cases in U.S. volume in 2025, followed by The Wine Group at 42 million cases, Trinchero Family Wine & Spirits at 15.6 million, Delicato Family Wines at 15.4 million, Deutsch Family Wine & Spirits at 12.7 million, Anheuser-Busch at 7 million and Jackson Family Wines at 5.7 million. Together, those seven companies accounted for 180.7 million cases.

Year-to-date retail trends through July 11 in NielsenIQ channels show uneven performance among those leading groups. Gallo was down 5.2%, The Wine Group fell 9.3%, Trinchero declined 3.7% and Delicato dropped 5.2%. Deutsch Family Wine & Spirits was up 2%, Anheuser-Busch rose 10.8% and Jackson Family Wines gained 1.3%.

The broader downturn has not erased pockets of strength in traditional table and sparkling wine. Impact Databank projects Josh Cellars, owned by Deutsch Family Wine & Spirits, will grow 2% this year to 6.5 million cases, excluding its Reserve and Prosecco offerings. The brand is already the top-selling wine line in the country by dollar sales, according to the firm.

La Marca Prosecco, part of Gallo’s portfolio, is expected to increase 5% to 3.7 million cases this year. Impact Databank said La Marca is the largest imported wine brand in the United States by dollar value.

Other premium labels expected to post volume gains this year include Kendall-Jackson at +0.1%, Menage a Trois at +1.5%, Decoy by Duckhorn at +1% and Mionetto at +3.5%.

The figures suggest that while demand for conventional wine remains under pressure, consumers are still buying selected premium labels and sparkling wines, and they continue to respond to portable and flavored formats tied to social occasions and convenience.

For wineries and importers, that creates a more divided market than headline decline figures alone might suggest. Large parts of the category are losing volume, but brands with strong identities, established retail positions or exposure to sparkling and RTD-adjacent occasions are holding up better than the rest of the field.

For wholesalers and retailers, the forecast may shape inventory decisions during the second half of the year and into 2027. A market falling below 300 million cases signals weaker baseline demand for many standard wine products, while continued growth in wine-based cocktails could encourage more shelf space for hybrid offerings that move faster.

The report does not suggest an immediate turnaround for total U.S. wine volume. Instead, it points to a category still adjusting to changing drinking habits after years of contraction, with growth concentrated in a narrower set of brands and formats than in past cycles.