China’s 2026 Wine Grape Harvest Is Expected to Reach 445,000 Metric Tons

China’s 2026 wine grape harvest is on track for about 445,000 metric tons, according to an industry estimate that places the crop in a range of 391,000 to 498,000 metric tons as the country moves into the main stage of the harvest.

The estimate is not official and is still provisional. It is based on a commercial wine grape area of 95,000 to 103,000 hectares and reflects the limited public data available in China on grapes grown specifically for wine. As of Aug. 26, picking had started in the warmer parts of Xinjiang and in some early varieties in eastern regions, but much of the Cabernet Sauvignon crop in Ningxia, Hebei, Gansu and Shandong was still on the vines.

China’s total vineyard area exceeds 700,000 hectares, but table grapes account for most of that land. The country does not publish a recent national series that clearly separates grapes destined for wine from fruit used for fresh consumption, raisins, juice and other products. That has forced analysts to rely on regional government figures, sector data and private estimates to build a national picture of the wine grape market.

Ningxia remains the main reference point. Local authorities said at the end of 2025 that the region had 607,000 mu, or 40,467 hectares, in what they described as development and planting area, and that this represented about 42% of the national base. Analysts caution that the administrative category does not necessarily match hectares covered by productive vines, so they place Ningxia’s likely wine grape area in a range of 38,000 to 40,500 hectares. Shandong is estimated at 19,500 to 21,000 hectares, Xinjiang at 13,800 hectares, Gansu around 10,000 hectares and Hebei at 8,000 to 9,000 hectares. Together, those five regions account for 92%-94% of China’s vineyard area for wine.

Cabernet Sauvignon still dominates Chinese wine grape plantings, with about 50% of the area. Marselan accounts for roughly 9%, while Merlot and Chardonnay each stand near 8%. Cabernet Gernischt or Carménère represents about 5%, and Syrah about 4%. Analysts estimate that 95%-97% of plantings are Vitis vinifera or crosses within that species. Marselan, which is derived from Cabernet Sauvignon and Grenache, belongs to that group, while Vidal and material derived from Vitis amurensis are concentrated mainly in the ice wine regions of the northeast.

The age of the vineyards is another uncertainty because there is no national census. The analysis estimates that 55%-65% of plantings are more than 10 years old. Ningxia has identified more than 200,000 mu of older, low-yield parcels in need of renewal. In the continental regions, winter vine burial remains a major cost. Growers bend and cover vines with soil to protect them from cold, a practice that increases labor use, can damage trunks and makes mechanization harder.

Weather has been a major variable this season, especially in Ningxia. A warm winter and early spring accelerated vegetative growth before a strong frost hit around April 20. Marselan and Malbec suffered severe losses in some low-lying parcels, although the damage was uneven and cannot be applied across the whole region. Ningxia’s 2026 crop is projected at 135,000 to 165,000 metric tons, with an effective yield of 3.3 to 4.1 metric tons per hectare when calculated across the entire estimated area, including nonproductive and low-yield land.

Xinjiang is expected to produce 65,000 to 80,000 metric tons after a season shaped by heat and drought. Temperatures topped 95 degrees Fahrenheit in wide areas during July, and some stations neared 122 degrees. In Ili, the growing season ran 1.1 to 1.9 degrees Celsius above normal, and early varieties began to be picked before Aug. 20. High heat can speed sugar accumulation and concentrate fruit, but it can also shrink berries, reduce acidity and raise the risk of dehydration and sunburn. Drip irrigation can limit part of that damage, though it requires close management.

Shandong is projected to deliver 90,000 to 110,000 metric tons. In Penglai, conditions through mid-August included less rain than usual, long periods of sunshine and earlier ripening, though vineyards still faced the risk of late heat and rain close to harvest. Hebei, with an expected crop of 32,000 to 45,000 metric tons, went through a wetter season marked by saturated soils, storms, hail and delayed color change in Huailai. Gansu is estimated at 42,000 to 55,000 metric tons, while Yunnan may contribute 8,000 to 13,000 metric tons.

China’s geography makes a single harvest calendar impossible. In Yunnan, the warmer zones harvest in summer, while the high-altitude vineyards of Shangri-La follow different schedules. In the northeast, Vidal and other grapes used for ice wine stay on the vine until winter temperatures are low enough for the fruit to be picked frozen. In many regions the supply chain is short. In Ili, for example, grapes typically move directly to wineries for sorting, crushing and pressing. Refrigeration plays a secondary role and is more relevant for higher-priced whites, sparkling wine bases and very warm areas.

The main economic pressure this year is not a shortage of processing capacity. It is weak demand relative to the capacity already in place. Xinjiang reports annual capacity of about 550,000 kiloliters for base wine and grape spirits, while its actual wine production in 2025 was about 84,000 metric tons, and the region was working to reduce inventories by 21,000 metric tons. Ningxia has more than 260 wine-related companies and about 130 built wineries, along with declared wine inventories of 55,600 metric tons, although that figure is not directly comparable with grape tonnage.

That mismatch reflects a broader market contraction. The International Organisation of Vine and Wine, or OIV, put China’s wine production at 2.2 million hectoliters in 2025, down 17.8% from a year earlier. Consumption fell 13% to 4.8 million hectoliters, far below the 12.4 million hectoliters recorded in 2020. Imports totaled 2.1 million hectoliters in 2025, down 26.7%, and in the first half of 2026 they fell by nearly another 11% to about 101 million liters. Imported bulk wine, which made up close to one-third of the volume in 2025, continues to pressure the market for domestic grapes used in high-volume wine.

Based on the expected harvest and a conversion rate of 0.65 to 0.72 liters of wine per kilogram of grapes, the analysis estimates that Chinese wineries will need 320,000 to 390,000 metric tons of domestic grapes in 2026. That is below the projected harvest. The adjustment can come through lower contracted yields, cluster thinning, rejection of fruit, low-price purchases, larger inventories or more wine production than currently expected. The gap helps explain why the marginal grape market remains weak even as several Chinese regions continue to produce premium wines.

Xinjiang offers the clearest signal on price pressure. One August reference point put contracted grapes at about 2.7 yuan per kilogram, down from 3.5 yuan in 2024. Fruit produced above contracted volumes sold for 1.2 to 2 yuan per kilogram, and some Cabernet Sauvignon lots fell to around 1 yuan. Those prices do not represent the whole country or top-quality grapes. A 2025 academic study used an average purchase reference of 4.87 yuan per kilogram, while in Ningxia much of the fruit comes from winery-owned vineyards or private agreements that do not produce comparable public pricing.

The market is organized through a mix of vertically integrated wineries, grower contracts and limited spot sales. Contracts usually set the variety, parcel, yield, ripeness level, delivery date and acceptance standards. Higher-value agreements may also include acidity, pH and sanitary condition. The amount covered by contract is critical because fruit outside the agreed volume loses bargaining power quickly. China’s eight main wine regions exported about 947,000 liters in 2025, a small figure next to the size of the domestic market.

Regional policies are moving in different directions. Ningxia is keeping in place a plan to reach 1 million mu of development and planting area by 2030, up from 607,000 mu at the end of 2025, although that industrial target is not a forecast for sales. Xinjiang is directing support toward varietal renewal, trellis adaptation, mechanization, automation and research. In 2025, it funded 63 projects worth 48.537 million yuan. In Shandong, authorities strengthened insurance support for wine grapes in Laishan, with public funds covering 60% of the premium.

Analysts say future forecasts will remain imprecise unless China improves its statistics. The report behind the 2026 estimate calls for an annual census that would separate table grapes from wine grapes and distinguish planted area from productive area, while also tracking vine age, variety, region, winery purchases and farm-gate prices. At present, the country’s overall wine consumption is measured more clearly through OIV data than the productive national area planted with Cabernet Sauvignon.