Global Wine Trade Faces Steepest Decline in a Decade as Market Polarizes

The Spanish Wine Interprofessional Organization (OIVE) has released its latest report on the world’s main wine importers and buyers, with data covering the first half of 2025. The findings show a global contraction in both the volume and value of international wine trade, highlighting the challenges and shifting dynamics facing the wine sector.

According to the report, the global wine market generated €16.7 billion and moved 4.68 billion liters in the first six months of 2025. These figures represent a 2.3% drop in value and a 3.7% decrease in volume compared to the same period in 2024. In absolute terms, the market transacted €387.7 million and 180.8 million liters less than the previous year. The average price per liter rose to €3.57, up six cents from 2024. However, this price increase is not a sign of market health. Instead, it reflects cost inflation and a shrinking demand for entry-level wines, while premium segments remain less sensitive to price changes.

This is the third consecutive semester of declining value since the record highs of 2022. In terms of volume, the first half of 2025 marks the lowest level in the past decade. The combination of falling volumes and rising average prices points to a polarized market, with significant differences between product categories and geographic regions.

Breaking down the market by product type, bottled wine remains the largest segment, accounting for 51% of global volume and 68% of value. However, it has also been the main driver of the overall decline, with a 3.1% drop in value to €11.3 billion and a 4.8% decrease in volume to 2.37 billion liters. This segment alone lost €366.8 million in value and 119.4 million liters in volume.

Sparkling wine showed relative stability, with only slight decreases of 0.3% in value and 0.4% in volume, reaching €3.73 billion and 479 million liters. This resilience stands out in an otherwise challenging market. Bulk wine and alternative formats, such as bag-in-box, experienced more volatility. Bulk wine fell by 2.4% in volume, while bag-in-box dropped by 5.3%. Grape must, a smaller category, saw a 4.3% increase in value despite a sharp 20.3% fall in volume, suggesting a supply shortage or a spike in demand for high-value uses.

Geographically, the United States emerged as the world’s top market by value, importing €3.25 billion worth of wine, a 6.5% increase from the previous year. This growth, however, is not organic. It is largely attributed to stockpiling ahead of new tariffs on European Union wines—10% in April and 15% in August 2025. The U.S. also saw a 1.9% rise in import volume, with an average price of €5.03 per liter, temporarily boosting global figures.

Germany maintained its position as the leading importer by volume, with 647.9 million liters, down 1.1% from 2024. Despite the slight drop in volume, Germany increased its spending by 6.9%, driven by a higher average price of €2.00 per liter. The United Kingdom, another key market, experienced a significant contraction, with a 5.4% decrease in value and a 6.4% drop in volume. This decline is a concern for the global industry, as the UK is the second-largest market by value and third by volume.

Other European markets showed mixed results. Belgium and Sweden recorded genuine growth, with Belgium up 3.4% in value and 16.6% in volume, and Sweden up 11.3% in value and 10.8% in volume. These countries stand out as rare bright spots in an otherwise subdued European landscape.

In Asia, China returned to negative territory after a positive 2024, with a 1.2% drop in value and a steep 12.6% fall in volume. Japan increased its spending by 4.3% but imported slightly less wine, down 0.9% in volume. Italy, a major producer and importer, saw a dramatic 28.5% decrease in import volume, while the Netherlands also posted notable declines.

A closer look at product and market interactions reveals that the apparent stability in sparkling wine is largely due to the U.S. market’s pre-tariff buying spree. The U.S. posted a 17.2% increase in value and a 16.8% rise in volume for sparkling wine, masking declines elsewhere, such as a 7.2% drop in value in the UK. Without the U.S. effect, the global sparkling wine segment would show a net contraction.

For bottled wine, trends in the U.S. and UK mirror the overall market, with growth in the U.S. and sharp declines in the UK. Other markets, including Canada, Hong Kong, and the Netherlands, also saw significant drops in bottled wine imports.

Bulk wine presents a dual market structure. Some countries, like the UK and U.S., are end consumers, while others, such as Germany, France, and Italy, act as producers and re-exporters. This is reflected in price differences: the UK imports bulk wine at €1.39 per liter, while Germany pays just €0.68 per liter. The segment also saw notable shifts, with Ivory Coast emerging as the eighth-largest importer by volume, up 95%, and Italy reducing its imports by 24%.

The first half of 2025 has been marked by contraction, with global declines partially offset by temporary factors in the U.S. The overall picture is one of complexity and fragmentation. While some markets like Belgium and Sweden offer opportunities, the industry faces ongoing risks from weak demand in mature markets and volatility in Asia.

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the sector is bracing for a correction. The end of U.S. stockpiling could dampen demand in the world’s largest market, adding pressure to already weak conditions in Europe and Asia. Producers and exporters will need to focus on value strategies and identify resilient markets to navigate a challenging global environment.