The future of wine consumption in 2050

The global wine market is undergoing a transformation that experts say will permanently reshape how, why, and by whom wine is consumed by 2050. According to the latest report from Vinetur, “The 2050 Wine Consumer: A Strategic Forecast of Generational, Cultural, and Gender Dynamics,” published on July 18, 2025, the industry is not simply facing a temporary downturn but a deep structural reset. The report draws on data from the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), IWSR, and other leading sources to forecast a future where wine’s role in society and its consumer base will look dramatically different from today.

In the early 2020s, global wine consumption began to decline steadily. By 2024, it had dropped to 214.2 million hectoliters, the lowest since 1961. This contraction is not just a result of economic pressures or inflation but reflects long-term changes in consumer behavior and values. The OIV points to shifting habits, evolving social norms, and generational turnover as the main drivers behind this trend. The decline is most pronounced in mature markets such as the United States, Canada, and China, where multi-year downward trends have persisted since before the inflationary shocks of 2022-2023.

The report identifies a new consumer archetype emerging for 2050: the “Portfolio Drinker.” This consumer will be predominantly Millennial or Gen Z, more ethnically diverse, digitally native, and less loyal to any single beverage category. Wine will become one option among many in a curated personal beverage portfolio. These consumers will make purchasing decisions based on sustainability, authenticity, and wellness rather than tradition or exclusivity. They will demand radical transparency about sourcing and production practices and expect products to align with their health-conscious lifestyles.

This shift is already visible in market dynamics. While overall wine volumes are shrinking—especially at the lower end of the price spectrum—premium and super-premium segments are showing resilience and even growth. In the U.S., wines under $12 are in persistent decline while bottles priced at $15-$25 or higher are gaining ground. Millennials are driving this “drink less but better” trend, willing to spend more for quality but not necessarily loyal to any one brand or style.

Generational change is at the heart of this transformation. Baby Boomers have long been the backbone of wine sales but are now aging out of regular consumption. Their preference for familiar brands and traditional styles provided stability for decades. By 2050, Boomers will have little direct influence on the market; their legacy will persist only in the brand equity of classic wineries that must now adapt to new consumer expectations.

Gen X serves as a bridge generation—still significant in volume but not driving transformative trends. Millennials are now the most engaged group in premium wine markets. They value exploration and authenticity over tradition and are open to new varietals, regions, and formats such as cans or small bottles. Their loyalty is fluid; they move between wine, craft beer, cocktails, and ready-to-drink beverages depending on occasion and mood.

Gen Z is poised to become the dominant force by 2050. Recent data shows their alcohol consumption rates rising sharply after years of decline narratives. However, their approach is different: they seek purpose over party, value aesthetics alongside ethics, and demand sustainability and diversity from brands. Their purchasing behavior is spontaneous and heavily influenced by digital engagement on platforms like TikTok and Instagram. For them, wine competes directly with spirits, RTDs, functional non-alcoholic drinks, and more for every drinking occasion.

Gender dynamics also play a key role in shaping future consumption patterns. Women currently make up between 55% and 59% of U.S. wine drinkers but are underrepresented in production roles. Female consumers tend to be more adventurous in their choices and buy wine for specific occasions rather than out of habit or collection-building. Packaging cues such as feminine labels can drive purchase intent but must align with product experience to avoid disappointment.

Men still spend more per bottle on average—a factor that drives value growth even as women drive volume growth. By 2050, as gender roles continue to evolve and women’s economic power grows, this gap may close or reverse.

Cultural context will further fragment global consumption patterns by mid-century. In North America and Europe—the world’s largest markets—wine’s role as an everyday beverage is fading fast among younger generations who prefer variety and occasion-based drinking. These markets will shrink in volume but grow in average value per bottle as premiumization takes hold.

Asia presents a mixed picture: China’s once-booming market has contracted sharply since 2018 as wine failed to embed itself deeply into daily culture; it may stabilize as a niche luxury market similar to Japan’s current structure by 2050. Japan remains a high-value niche with polarized demographics—older consumers drive fine wine sales while younger ones embrace natural wines. South Korea stands out as a dynamic growth market driven by young urban consumers who see wine as fashionable and sophisticated.

Emerging markets like Brazil show promise due to an expanding middle class associating wine with modernity and social connection; local sparkling wines are especially popular for celebrations. South Africa faces challenges but has potential if it can engage its large Millennial and Gen Z population through digital innovation and authentic storytelling.

External forces such as climate change will further disrupt traditional hierarchies among wine regions by altering growing conditions worldwide. The rise of low- and no-alcohol (NOLO) products will create new entry points for consumers seeking moderation or wellness benefits without sacrificing flavor or experience.

Technology will be central to this evolution: AI-driven personalization tools will guide consumer choices; blockchain-enabled “digital terroir” records will provide verifiable transparency about every step from vineyard to glass; immersive digital experiences will connect brands with fragmented audiences across multiple platforms.

For producers and marketers, survival depends on adaptation: embracing radical transparency through technology; diversifying portfolios with high-quality NOLO offerings; mastering hyper-personalized digital engagement; moving beyond gender stereotypes toward deeper understanding of motivations; tailoring strategies for local cultural contexts rather than relying on global standardization.

By 2050, success in the wine industry will mean selling not just a beverage but an experience that aligns with consumers’ values—verifiable, sustainable, authentic—and fits seamlessly into their broader lifestyle choices across occasions and categories. The era of predictable volume-led growth is over; what lies ahead is a complex landscape where value creation depends on innovation, agility, and genuine connection with a new generation of drinkers whose expectations are higher—and more diverse—than ever before.