Developing markets drive global beverage alcohol growth as mature economies stagnate

The global beverage alcohol industry is entering a new phase, with developing markets set to drive growth after a challenging 2024. According to new data and forecasts from IWSR, the value of the world’s core beverage alcohol markets is projected to increase by $34 billion over the next decade, despite economic and political headwinds that limited expansion last year. This represents a 3% absolute value growth between 2024 and 2034 across the largest markets.

In 2024, global total beverage alcohol (TBA) volumes fell by 1%, but value rose by 1%, adding $8.5 billion. The United States and China, traditionally the largest markets, saw contractions in volume, while India and Brazil posted gains. This shift highlights the growing importance of developing markets for the industry’s future.

IWSR’s new 10-year forecasting tool predicts that TBA volumes across the top 31 markets will remain stable through 2034. Wine is expected to be the only major category in decline, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -1% from 2024 to 2034. Ready-to-drink (RTD) beverages are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 2%, while spirits, beer, and cider are expected to remain flat in volume terms. However, all categories are predicted to outperform their volume expectations in value as consumers continue to drink less but spend more per drink.

Within beer, Mexico, India, and Vietnam are expected to add significant volumes. Even in declining markets like the US, China, Germany, and Japan, there are opportunities in segments such as no-alcohol beers, stouts, and specialty brews. Premium and super-premium products are expected to perform best.

Among spirits, Tequila is set for strong growth outside Mexico, with CAGRs of 2% in volume and 3% in value across the top 31 markets through 2034. Scotch whisky will see robust growth in India—set to become its largest market by 2027—and in Türkiye, which is expected to become Scotch’s fourth-largest market by 2030. Spirit aperitifs are also forecasted for annual growth of 4% across leading markets, with Brazil, Poland, and the US making notable gains.

Emily Neill, IWSR COO for Research & Operations, notes that brand owners face a challenge: balancing investment in developing markets that offer growth potential with managing larger but shrinking developed markets. She points out that even mature markets can offer opportunities through innovation and targeted marketing—such as premium beer’s success in the UK during 2024.

The IWSR’s latest analysis shows that developing markets will be the main contributors to value growth over the next decade. India leads this group and is expected to account for nearly half of all forecasted value growth by 2034. Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa are also poised for strong gains. In contrast, China is forecasted to decline due to demographic changes and structural issues affecting lower-priced beer and spirits. Developed markets like Germany, the US, and the UK are also expected to shrink by a combined $6 billion.

India was a standout performer in 2024 with TBA volume up by 6% and value up by 9%, driven mainly by beer and whisky but with gains across all major categories. By 2032, India is projected to become the world’s third most valuable TBA market behind China and the US. It will also become the largest market for Scotch whisky by 2027.

Brazil saw TBA volumes rise by 1% in 2024—a significant achievement given its size—with value up by 5%. Growth was led by premium beer, RTDs, and brandy. In Türkiye, beer is growing across all price points while premium-plus whisky attracts consumers from traditional raki. The country is on track to surpass Brazil and the UK in Scotch whisky consumption by 2030.

South Africa continues its upward trend with strong TBA growth fueled mainly by beer and RTDs—including wine-based RTDs seen as trendy alternatives to traditional wine.

No-alcohol beer is another bright spot globally. While overall beer volumes declined—lagers dropped by 1% in 2024 due largely to falling consumption in China and the US—no-alcohol beers are gaining ground. The US is set to add $2 billion of incremental value from no-alcohol beer over five years; Brazil will add $0.5 billion. No-alcohol beer is expected to become the second-largest segment after lager in 2025.

Premiumization remains a key trend across categories such as beer, RTDs, and Tequila. Premium beer was the only segment showing growth in China last year; super-premium beer did so in the US; both premium and super-premium tiers drove growth for beer in Brazil; premium beer grew by 8% in the UK thanks largely to stout sales. Premium beer is forecasted for a volume CAGR of 2% across top markets through 2034; super-premium at 3%. RTD volumes grew globally by 2% last year with value up by 5%, reflecting consumer interest in higher-value products.

Tequila’s forecasted value growth of a CAGR of 2% through 2029 will be driven mainly by demand for premium products in the US and global travel retail channels.

Wine continues to struggle: it is projected as the only major category declining in volume across leading markets through 2034 at a CAGR of -1%. However, higher price points may offer some relief—Portugal’s premium-plus wine segments are growing thanks to tourism and consumer preference for quality over quantity.

The IWSR forecasts cover about 80% of global beverage alcohol volumes across key countries including Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Türkiye, United Kingdom, United States, Vietnam among others.

The data underscores a clear shift: while developed markets face stagnation or decline due to demographic changes and moderation trends among consumers, developing economies—led by India—are set to shape the future of global beverage alcohol over the next decade.