US, India and China lead growth in global wine market

The global wine market in 2025 is undergoing a significant realignment shaped by emerging economies and shifting consumer preferences. According to the latest data from IWSR, countries with large populations such as India, China, and the United States will be the main engines of market value growth over the next five years, joined by Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Vietnam, and Nigeria as additional contributors. Many emerging markets are benefiting from rising disposable incomes and the consolidation of a middle class with the purchasing power to explore higher-end offerings. India exemplifies this trend, having recorded a 4% rise in alcoholic beverage volume in the first half of 2024, driven by premium spirits, RTDs, and local malt whiskies. Nations across Southeast Asia, including Vietnam and the Philippines, have shown marked increases in beer and premium spirit consumption, while South Africa has seen growth led by beer, cider, and RTDs. In Latin America, consumption of premium beer and RTDs has surged in markets such as Mexico and Brazil.

India's wine and spirits market remains less developed than those of mature economies, yet more flexible regulations in some states are helping boost its value growth. Between 2023 and 2028, both India and the United States are projected to increase in market value, though at vastly different speeds. While the US market is expected to grow by around 0.8% annually, India should surpass 4%, despite the United States holding a clear advantage in both volume and value. China and the US both find themselves in periods of uncertainty, though for different reasons. China's economic slowdown has dampened consumption of wines, beers, and spirits, leading to double-digit declines in Champagne and a notable rise in Prosecco demand. The United States, despite generally strong macroeconomic indicators, is witnessing negative consumer sentiment, particularly affecting higher-priced wines and spirits. Industry reports forecast a rebound in US spirits sales beginning in 2025, though wines and beers may continue to retreat. The most recent data suggest consumer confidence saw a mild recovery in September 2024 in the US, Europe, and Latin America, while it remained steady elsewhere.

In the wine category, Prosecco continues its steady climb, highlighting a preference for familiar, value-driven sparkling wines, and Champagne has begun to emerge from its downturn with mild growth in 2024. Fortified wines are also bouncing back after a period of contraction, and still wines maintain modest but steady demand, supported by consumers who favor reliable options. Emerging styles outside traditional categories have posted healthy gains, reflecting growing curiosity for new and unconventional wine offerings. Within the US, sales of alcoholic beverages vary widely depending on category and location. Beer consumption has fallen significantly in states like Nevada and Montana, in contrast to the sharp upswing of RTDs, which have grown by nearly one-fifth in Nevada alone. Spirits consumption remains mostly stable, with minor fluctuations, while wine shows uneven performance across regions, highlighted by an 11.3% drop in California.

The rise of RTDs is changing the balance of consumption in many countries, with spirits often losing ground to these ready-to-drink options in Asia and Africa and beer facing the same challenge across several European markets. In North America, both beer and spirits have seen some displacement as RTDs gain ground, underscoring how consumer tastes are trending toward convenience and diverse flavor profiles. Industry players are monitoring these changes carefully, as demographics, regulations, and evolving preferences together shape the strategies needed to capture opportunities in expanding markets while confronting contraction in certain traditional segments.