South African Wine Exports Plunge 8.2% as U.S. Tariffs and European Oversupply Reshape Global Market

The global wine trade is facing significant challenges in 2025, with South Africa’s wine industry experiencing a sharp decline in exports due to the interconnected nature of international markets and recent trade disputes. South Africa, which relies heavily on exports for the survival of its wine sector, has seen its shipments fall across nearly all major destinations this year.

In 2024, South Africa exported 284.8 million liters of wine. The United Kingdom was the largest market, accounting for 28.3% of exports, followed by Germany at 16.2%, France at 5.6%, Belgium at 5.4%, and the United States at 3.5%. These figures show that Europe is the primary destination for South African wine, while the U.S. plays a smaller role in terms of volume.

By September 2025, total South African wine exports had dropped by 8.2%. Bulk exports were down by 13.6%. The decline varied by market: exports to the UK fell by 12%, Germany by 6%, France by 28%, Belgium by 4%, and the U.S. by a striking 67%. These numbers reflect not only domestic issues but also broader global trade disruptions.

A key factor behind these declines is the ongoing trade conflict between the United States and Europe. In response to policy changes, the U.S. imposed a 10% tariff on European wines, targeting major suppliers like France and Italy. While South African wines are not directly targeted by these tariffs, they now face a 30% tariff in the U.S., making them less competitive in an already challenging market.

The indirect effects of U.S. tariffs have been even more damaging for South Africa. As French and Italian producers lose access to the American market, they redirect their surplus wines to Europe—South Africa’s main export region—creating oversupply and driving down prices. This increased competition has made it harder for South African producers to maintain their market share.

The economic slowdown in both the U.S. and Europe has added further pressure. In mid-2025, U.S. imports dropped by 6.8% as businesses rushed to import goods before tariffs took effect. Consumer inflation in the U.S. rose to 2.7%, while economic growth in the Eurozone slowed to just 0.1% in the second quarter of the year. These conditions have reduced overall demand for wine globally.

France and Italy remain dominant players in both the U.S. and European wine markets. When they are unable to sell as much wine in America due to tariffs, they increase their focus on European markets such as Germany, the UK, France itself, and Belgium—all key destinations for South African wine exports.

In Germany, Italian wine exports increased by over 10% in value during the first half of 2025, while South African exports declined by 6%. Italy now exports eight times more wine to Germany than South Africa does. In the UK, although Italian exports fell slightly, France and Italy still control most of the market, with each exporting more than double what South Africa sends there.

South African exports to France dropped sharply by 28% as French producers saturated their own market with surplus stock that could not be sold in America. In Belgium, South African exports fell by 4%, again reflecting increased competition from redirected European supply.

The overall decline in South African wine exports this year can be traced to three main factors: direct U.S. tariffs on South African wines; oversupply in Europe caused by French and Italian producers shifting their focus away from America; and a general slowdown in global economic growth that has reduced consumer demand for wine.

This situation highlights how deeply interconnected global trade has become for agricultural products like wine. Decisions made in one country can have far-reaching consequences for producers thousands of miles away who are not directly involved in trade disputes but are nonetheless affected by shifts in supply and demand.

South African winemakers now face difficult choices as they look for ways to adapt to these new realities. Many industry experts believe that diversifying export markets beyond Europe and North America will be essential for long-term stability. Some suggest increasing efforts to build brand recognition in Asia and Africa or investing in marketing strategies that set South African wines apart from their European competitors.

For now, however, many producers are feeling squeezed out of both traditional and emerging markets as global trade tensions continue to reshape the landscape of international wine commerce.