Report signals key shifts in the 2025 wine market

The global wine market is closing 2025 in a period of significant change, according to the Strategic Forecast Report published by Vinetur on November 19, 2025. The report, based on trade flows from January to October, macroeconomic trends, and customs data from the top ten importing countries, outlines a year marked by structural shifts in both supply and demand.

The wine industry has not returned to pre-pandemic patterns following the volatility and inflationary pressures of 2023 and 2024. Instead, it has entered what analysts describe as a “new reality.” This is defined by a divergence between value and volume in global trade, increased geopolitical fragmentation, and evolving consumption habits in mature markets.

A key factor shaping the market this year has been the aftermath of the historically low global grape harvest in 2024, which reached levels not seen since 1961. This supply shortage, combined with weakened consumer purchasing power due to inflation, has led to higher average prices for wine even as overall consumption contracts. The result is a scenario where fewer liters are being traded internationally, but the total value of those trades remains resilient or even grows in certain segments.

Three main forces are driving this value-volume divergence. First, forced premiumization and scarcity have pushed up prices as major exporters like Spain and France saw production drops of up to 20% in some regions. Second, costs for packaging materials and logistics remain high, with elevated interest rates making it more expensive to finance inventories. Third, consumers who continue to buy wine are increasingly opting for higher-quality products, particularly sparkling and premium still wines, which have shown less sensitivity to price increases than generic table wines.

Geopolitical tensions have also played a major role in reshaping trade flows. The reintroduction of tariffs by the United States on European wines—ranging from 15% to 25%—and subsequent retaliatory measures by Canada against U.S. wines have disrupted traditional supply chains. These actions led to stockpiling early in the year followed by sharp declines later on. In Russia, new sanctions and the withdrawal of Western companies have collapsed European wine imports, redirecting Russian demand toward domestic producers and neighboring Georgia.

Logistics challenges have further complicated matters. Disruptions in key shipping routes such as the Red Sea and Suez Canal forced longer transit times via the Cape of Good Hope for shipments from Europe to Asia and Oceania. Direct-to-consumer shipping costs reached record highs—averaging $52.68 per bottle—making cross-border e-commerce unviable for all but luxury wines. Container shipping rates also spiked due to tariff uncertainty and port congestion on the U.S. West Coast.

Global estimates for year-end 2025 show total import value at €34.85 billion (down 2.1% from 2024) and total import volume at 9.45 billion liters (down 4.2%). The average price per liter rose by 2.2% to €3.69, reflecting both cost inflation and a shift toward premium products. Global wine consumption is expected to close at around 212 million hectoliters, down 1.1% from last year.

Per capita consumption continues its downward trend in traditional markets such as the United States—estimated at 2.60 gallons per person this year compared to a peak of 3.16 gallons in 2021—and across Europe, where wine is losing ground at mealtimes due to moderation trends, competition from other beverages, and economic pressures.

A closer look at individual markets reveals varied dynamics:

1. In the United States, import value grew slightly (+2.1%) despite a drop in volume (-1.5%), driven by early-year stockpiling ahead of tariffs and strong performance in sparkling wines like Champagne and Prosecco.
2. The United Kingdom saw both value (-4.5%) and volume (-6%) fall after implementing a new alcohol duty system that penalizes higher-alcohol wines.
3. Germany’s import value rose (+4.5%) even as volume slipped (-1.2%), with importers shifting from bulk to bottled wines due to scarcity of cheap bulk options.
4. Canada experienced an increase in import volume (+4%) but a decline in value (-3.5%), as retaliatory tariffs on U.S. wines led buyers to source more bulk wine from Spain and Chile.
5. Japan’s market remained stable in value (+1.5%) but contracted slightly in volume (-1%), with luxury sparkling wines growing despite currency weakness pushing consumers toward more affordable options.
6. The Netherlands saw a sharp drop in volume (-10.5%) but only a modest decline in value (-2.5%), reflecting reduced imports of cheap bulk wine amid high logistics costs.
7. China posted strong growth figures (+15% value; +8% volume), largely due to the return of Australian wines after tariffs were lifted—a technical rebound rather than an indicator of robust underlying demand.
8. Belgium increased both import value (+3%) and volume (+12%), likely due to re-exports and discounted French wines entering the market after failing to find buyers elsewhere.
9. Switzerland cut back on imports across most categories except bulk wine and Bag-in-Box formats as even high-income consumers became more price-conscious.
10. Sweden’s monopoly-driven market saw rising values (+2.5%) despite falling volumes (-5%), with an emphasis on ethical and organic products amid currency weakness.

Emerging trends include rapid growth in non-alcoholic (“NoLo”) wines—now estimated at $2.84 billion globally—with technological improvements attracting younger consumers seeking moderation options. Bag-in-Box formats gained popularity due to their logistical advantages and lower cost per liter, especially in Scandinavia, Japan, and Switzerland.

Bulk wine trade faced volatility: while shortages pushed up ex-cellar prices, high transport costs made long-distance shipping uneconomical for low-priced products.

Looking ahead to 2026, the report forecasts only a modest recovery in global harvests (+3%), still below historical averages. Ex-cellar prices may stabilize if supply improves slightly, but demand will remain constrained by economic factors and changing consumer preferences.

The industry is expected to continue shifting away from high-volume commodity exports toward regional trade networks focused on higher-value products that meet demands for sustainability, health consciousness, and convenience—trends that are likely to define the global wine market’s next phase.