IWSR Lowers 2025 Alcohol Forecast Amid Economic Strains and Policy Shifts

Global beverage alcohol consumption is expected to decline more sharply in 2025 than previously forecast, according to a mid-year update released today by IWSR, a leading provider of data and analysis for the beverage alcohol industry. The revised outlook points to a -0.4% drop in global beverage alcohol volume for 2025, compared to the -0.2% decrease projected earlier this year. In value terms, the market is now expected to fall by -0.7%, down from the previous estimate of -0.5%.

The main reason for the downward revision is a steeper-than-anticipated decline in beer consumption, particularly in the United States and China. Economic pressures and policy changes in these two countries are having a significant impact on consumer behavior and overall demand for alcoholic beverages.

Marten Lodewijks, Managing Director and President of IWSR, explained that beer sales are closely linked to social occasions at bars and restaurants. In the US, more consumers are choosing to stay home due to rising living costs, which has shifted their purchasing habits away from beer. When people entertain at home, they often opt for different types of alcohol, resulting in lower beer sales.

Another factor affecting US beer consumption is a notable drop in Mexican beer imports. For years, Mexican beer has been a major driver of growth in the US market. However, political and economic uncertainty among Hispanic consumers has led to reduced demand for these products, further weakening overall beer sales.

In China, government actions have also contributed to declining alcohol consumption. A crackdown on luxury goods and a ban on alcohol at public sector events have limited opportunities for drinking outside the home. Slower-than-expected economic growth is also curbing spending at bars and restaurants as well as on beverage alcohol in general. As a result, IWSR has lowered its forecasts for both beer and brandy volumes in China.

Globally, IWSR now expects beer volume to fall by -0.2% in 2025, reversing an earlier prediction of +0.2% growth. Spirits are forecast to decline by -1.3%, while wine is set to drop by -2.4%. The only category expected to grow is Ready to Drink (RTD) beverages, with a projected increase of +1.3% next year.

Because beer accounts for large serving volumes worldwide, even small changes in its consumption can have an outsized effect on total beverage alcohol figures.

IWSR’s long-term forecasts for 2026 remain unchanged from six months ago, with no growth expected in either volume or value terms.

This mid-year update marks the first time IWSR has issued a forecast outside its usual annual schedule in May. The company says it made this change in response to client requests for more frequent updates amid growing market uncertainty. Going forward, IWSR will release forecasts twice a year, in May and November.