Spirits Market Forecasts 4.12% Growth Rebound by Late 2026 After 4.39% Decline, Report Shows 99% Accuracy

WSWA’s SipSource has released its 2025 Q2 Forecasting Report, offering a detailed look at expected trends in the U.S. spirits market through the third quarter of 2026. The report provides quarterly projections of rolling 12-month nine-liter case depletion growth rates for seven major spirits categories and all core spirits. These forecasts are based on a comprehensive data set that includes historical depletion figures from 19 leading wholesalers, sales data from the National Alcohol Beverage Control Association (NABCA), and more than ten macroeconomic indicators that influence consumer behavior.

The SipSource forecasting model uses machine learning and artificial intelligence to analyze this data, aiming to deliver accurate, forward-looking insights for the industry. According to the report, the forecasting tool has demonstrated strong performance. Projections made in the third quarter of 2024 for the first half of 2025 were more than 80% accurate at the class level. The accuracy improved further with the Q1 2025 data refresh, reaching over 90% for most product classes and an impressive 99% for total core spirits in predicting Q2 2025 outcomes.

The latest projections indicate that the spirits industry is moving toward a period of stabilization after experiencing significant declines from 2022 to 2024. For total core spirits, the report expects a decrease to -4.39% rolling 12-month growth by the end of 2025. However, this negative trend is forecasted to level out, with rolling 12-month growth rebounding to 4.12% by the third quarter of 2026.

Tequila and agave-based spirits, which have been among the strongest performers in recent years, are projected to see sharp decreases in depletion growth rates. The category is expected to reach nearly flat rolling 12-month growth by the fourth quarter of 2025 and move into negative territory by the end of Q3 2026. Despite this downturn, tequila and agave spirits are still anticipated to remain the top-performing product class in the industry.

Other categories, such as U.S. whiskey and Scotch, have shown early signs of recovery in the first part of 2025 after experiencing steep declines in 2024. The report notes that while most classes are still facing negative growth rates, these are stabilizing compared to previous years’ sharper drops.

SipSource’s forecasts are widely used by producers, distributors, and retailers to inform business decisions and anticipate shifts in consumer demand. The report’s high level of accuracy, especially as more data becomes available, underscores its value as a tool for navigating a changing market landscape. The continued use of advanced analytics and real-time data integration is expected to further enhance the reliability of future projections, helping industry stakeholders adapt to evolving trends in the U.S. beverage alcohol sector.