2026-08-06
China’s beer exports fell in the first half of 2026, reversing the steady growth seen in recent years and pointing to a weaker overseas market for the country’s brewers.
From January through June, China exported 378.7 million liters of beer, down 5.6% from the same period a year earlier, according to figures published on August 5 by the China Business Industry Research Institute. Export value fell faster than volume, slipping 8.5% year over year to $256.5 million.
Using the institute’s rounded growth rate, the comparable export volume for the first half of 2025 was about 401.2 million liters. That implies a decline of roughly 22.5 million liters in the latest six-month period. On the value side, the same calculation suggests a drop of about $23.8 million from an estimated $280.3 million a year earlier.
The sharper fall in value than in volume also points to weaker average export returns. Based on the published totals, the average export value was about $0.677 a liter in the first half of 2026, compared with about $0.699 a liter a year earlier, a decline of roughly 3.1%. That does not necessarily mean beer prices fell evenly across all shipments. The average can also change because of shifts in package sizes, product mix, brands or destination markets. The institute’s release did not provide that level of detail.
The first-half trend was not uniform. January and February were weak, with exports of 57.13 million liters and 41.97 million liters, respectively, and both months posted year-over-year declines in volume and value. February was the softest month of the half in absolute terms, with export value at $29.3 million.
March and April then brought a rebound. March exports rose 22.6% from a year earlier in volume and 21.5% in value, reaching 72.88 million liters and $48.2 million. April followed with gains of 8.0% in volume and 8.2% in value, at 67.85 million liters and $45.9 million. Based on the monthly pattern published by the institute, those two months were enough to offset the earlier weakness and leave cumulative exports slightly ahead of the previous year by the end of April.
The downturn that defined the half came later. In May, export volume fell 16.4% year over year to 65.52 million liters, while value dropped 18.2% to $46.2 million. In June, export volume reached 73.33 million liters, the highest monthly total of the half, but it was still 17.4% below June 2025. Export value in June was $50.4 million, down 21.8% from a year earlier. Taken together, May and June erased the gains built in March and April and accounted for the entire first-half decline.
That made the second quarter notably weaker than the first in year-over-year terms. The institute’s monthly series indicates that first-quarter export volume was nearly flat, up about 0.4%, while value fell about 2.7%. In the second quarter, volume fell about 10.1% and value about 12.8%. The pattern suggests two separate pressures: weaker shipment volumes later in the half and softer unit values throughout much of the period.
The slowdown follows a strong run for China’s beer exports. The same institute said China exported 761.1 million liters of beer in 2025, up 14.4% from 2024, with export value rising 12.4% to $523.8 million. That was the highest annual volume in the data series cited in the release and capped several years of expansion. Annual export volume rose from 424.2 million liters in 2021 to 761.1 million liters in 2025.
Yet the value side had already begun to lose momentum before 2026. The implied average export value per liter rose from about $0.658 in 2021 to about $0.727 in 2023, then slipped to about $0.700 in 2024 and about $0.688 in 2025 before falling again in the first half of 2026. That means export revenue had been growing more slowly than export volume since 2024, even before volumes turned negative this year.
The institute’s monthly charts also suggest that pressure on export values was visible in late 2025. In most of the months shown from August 2025 through June 2026, the year-over-year change in export value was weaker than the change in export volume. That pattern does not explain why returns softened, but it does show that the issue did not begin only in the current half.
The release did not identify which foreign markets drove the decline, which beer categories were affected, or whether the change reflected weaker demand, pricing pressure, competition, shipping conditions or a shift toward lower-value products. It referred readers to the institute’s database and did not include a direct link to the primary customs table. That means the most precise causes behind the drop cannot be verified from the published note alone, and the absolute year-over-year declines are reconstructed from rounded rates rather than taken directly from an official comparison table.
The export decline also stands in contrast with stronger performance inside China for some international brands operating through local partnerships. The editorial note accompanying the data highlighted nearly 30% growth in Heineken’s licensed portfolio in China, underscoring that domestic brand performance and export trade are not moving in the same direction. That divergence suggests a split between channels and destinations rather than a single trend across the whole beer business.
If China were to match its 2025 annual export total, the second half of 2026 would have to be stronger than the second half of last year. Based on the institute’s annual figures, exports from July through December would need to reach about 382.4 million liters and $267.3 million. That would require gains of roughly 6.2% in volume and 9.8% in value over the second half of 2025, a threshold that depends not only on shipments recovering but also on average export values improving from first-half levels.