Wine volumes fell 3% in Sub-Saharan Africa despite broader alcohol market growth.

New IWSR data reported by Wine-Intelligence show that Sub-Saharan Africa’s beverage alcohol market grew in 2025, but the gains were uneven and wine moved in the opposite direction. Total beverage alcohol volumes in the region rose 1% in 2025, according to the data published Sept. 6, with ready-to-drink products leading growth at 11%, spirits up 6% and beer up 1%. Wine fell 3%.

The figures point to a region that still offers long-term growth for alcohol producers, but also one that remains hard to navigate. IWSR projects a 2% compound annual growth rate for total beverage alcohol in Sub-Saharan Africa through 2035. The research group said the main drivers are youthful populations, fast urbanization and the expansion of middle-income consumers in several markets.

Russell Menezes, IWSR’s research director for Africa and the Middle East, said the opportunity rests on those demographic trends, with alcohol brands often carrying social value for consumers who are moving up economically. He said consumers in countries including South Africa, Nigeria, Tanzania, Ghana and Ethiopia are still willing to trade up selectively for special occasions, even while wider economic conditions remain difficult.

At the same time, the regional picture is being shaped less by broad premiumization than by affordability pressures. The data show that downtrading remains a central consumer trend across much of Sub-Saharan Africa. Drinkers are shifting from spirits to beer, from imported products to local ones, and from established commercial brands to artisanal or informal alternatives. Smaller and cheaper pack sizes are also gaining ground.

That backdrop helps explain why wine is lagging behind categories that can more easily fit tighter budgets or local supply chains. It also suggests that importers and international wine suppliers may need to rethink product mix, pricing and distribution in markets where local production has a strong position and consumers are prioritizing value. That is not limited to wine, but the pressure appears sharper there because the category is not sharing in the region’s current growth.

Locally produced alcohol accounts for most volume in several categories, according to IWSR. In 2025, 97% of beer sold in the region was produced domestically, along with 87% of RTDs, 80% of spirits, 71% of cider and 59% of wine. Those shares show how difficult it can be for imported products to gain traction at scale, especially when route-to-market systems are uneven and price sensitivity is high.

Menezes said the size of the opportunity is clear, but that capturing it is complicated by structural volatility, the dominance of low-priced local and artisanal products, and distribution challenges. Those conditions mean brands cannot rely on a single regional strategy and must instead tailor plans country by country.

South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya illustrate how different those playbooks may need to be. In South Africa, affordability remains a major factor in purchasing decisions. Beer was the most resilient category there in 2025, with volumes up 3%, while RTDs jumped 14% as consumers moved away from bottled spirits and wine in search of lower-cost options. Even so, some premium spirits segments continued to find buyers. Cognac volumes rose 18%, tequila increased 7%, and Canadian and Irish whiskey both gained share from more expensive Scotch, according to the data.

IWSR said South Africa may also be showing early signs of a future rebound in some categories, helped by improving confidence among Generation Z consumers. But the current year’s numbers still reflect a market where price remains the first consideration for many households.

In Nigeria, the growth pattern looks different. IWSR said millennials are the main engine of demand there, drinking more often and more heavily than the region’s Generation Z consumers. Some younger consumers, the data suggest, show little intention of taking up alcohol at all. In 2025, spirits and RTDs each grew 8% in Nigeria. Gin, bitters, cream liqueurs and whisky performed especially well. Indian whisky also continued to take share from blended Scotch, largely on value.

Kenya stood out for stronger momentum. Local spirits volumes rose 13% in 2025 and RTDs climbed 14%, according to IWSR. Tequila volumes surged 65% and Irish whiskey rose 35%. IWSR expects those growth rates to moderate as the domestic economy strengthens over the next few years, but the current figures still show a market where newer and more varied drinking occasions are helping some categories expand quickly.

Agave spirits were another bright spot across the region. IWSR said the category grew 8% in 2025 and is expected to post a 5% compound annual growth rate over the next decade. That performance stands in contrast to wine, which remains the main weak point in an otherwise positive regional outlook.

For beverage companies, the new data underline a split market. Demand is growing in parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, but it is being captured mainly by categories and formats that meet local price expectations and benefit from domestic production. Wine’s 3% decline in 2025 suggests that producers and distributors in that segment may face a tougher job than peers in beer, spirits and RTDs as they try to build scale in a market that continues to favor affordability, local supply and flexible route-to-market strategies.