Top Wineries Outpace Rivals by 22% in a Fractured U.S. Wine Market

A widening split is taking shape in the U.S. wine business, with the strongest wineries growing even as weaker peers continue to lose ground, according to Silicon Valley Bank’s 2026 Direct-to-Consumer Wine Report, released this month by the bank’s wine division, now part of First Citizens Bank.

The report, based on survey responses from 450 family wineries, found that top-performing wineries increased revenue by 22% in 2025, while bottom-performing wineries posted a 13% decline. The median winery showed no growth.

The findings point to an industry that may be moving past the sharpest part of its downturn, but not yet into a broad recovery. “Things feel different, not better — not yet,” Rob McMillan, executive vice president and founder of Silicon Valley Bank’s wine division and the report’s author, said in comments cited by the report coverage.

What separates the best performers from the weakest ones is not vineyard size or appellation status, the report argues, but strategy. Higher-performing wineries are focusing more on customers, relationships and brand building. Lower-performing wineries are spending more attention on cutting costs, fixing operations and upgrading tasting rooms.

Both groups are often using similar tools, including events, pricing changes and investments in visitor experiences. The difference, according to the report, is how those tools are used. The stronger wineries are asking what target consumers want and how to deliver it. The weaker group is more focused on reducing the cost of what it already sells.

McMillan said that approach has limits in a soft market. “No matter the environment, you can’t cut your way to growth,” he said. “Brand-building is what makes people desire your wine.”

The divide also appears in pricing decisions. In a market where discounting can seem like the fastest response to slower demand, top-quartile wineries were 60% more likely to raise bottle prices than struggling wineries, according to the report.

That finding suggests that some producers are trying to protect brand value rather than chase volume through lower shelf prices. The report warns that deep discounts can damage how premium buyers view a winery and can be hard to reverse once that perception takes hold.

Instead of cutting bottle prices outright, the report points to more selective tactics such as lowering shipping costs, bundling products or adding a complimentary bottle with a case purchase. Those moves can preserve price positioning while still giving consumers an incentive to buy.

For the broader beverage business, the results may carry lessons beyond wine. As direct-to-consumer channels remain important for premium alcohol brands, the data suggests pricing discipline and brand strategy could matter as much as demand trends when sales slow. That may shape how wineries — and potentially other drinks producers with club memberships, online sales or tasting-room traffic — decide whether to defend margins, adjust offers or invest more heavily in customer retention.

The report arrives at a time when many U.S. wineries are still dealing with uneven consumer demand and pressure on discretionary spending. Its central message is that market conditions alone do not explain why some producers are holding steady or growing while others are shrinking. In this reading, execution and commercial focus are becoming more important markers of performance than scale or prestige alone.