EU Wine Consumption Set to Drop 9% by 2035 Amid Health Concerns and Shifting Tastes

Wine consumption in the European Union is expected to continue its downward trend over the next decade, according to a new report from the European Commission. The EU Agricultural Outlook 2025-35 forecasts that wine consumption will fall by 0.9% per year until 2035, reaching about 19.3 liters per capita. This represents a 9% decrease compared to the average consumption between 2021 and 2025.

The report identifies several factors behind this decline. Health concerns are playing a significant role, with more consumers choosing to limit their alcohol intake. Policies promoting moderate drinking for health reasons are also influencing behavior. In addition, there is growing competition from other beverages, including non-alcoholic options and alternative drinks.

Younger generations are particularly driving these changes. The Commission notes that younger drinkers tend to consume less alcohol than previous generations. There is also a shift in preferences toward higher-quality wines, with consumers opting for more “upmarket” products rather than larger quantities of lower-priced wine.

The decline in wine consumption is not uniform across all EU countries. Nations with historically high levels of wine drinking, such as France and Germany, are experiencing some of the largest decreases. At the same time, there is a rise in sales of wine-based drinks, including no- and low-alcohol wines, but these products still represent a small share of the overall market.

The trend is not limited to the EU’s internal market. Key export destinations like the United States and the United Kingdom are also seeing reduced demand for EU wines. As a result, the report predicts that EU wine production could decrease by 0.5% annually over the next ten years, potentially dropping output to 138 million hectoliters by 2035.

A projected reduction in vineyard areas—estimated at 0.6% per year through 2035—is cited as a major reason for future declines in production, assuming stable weather conditions and yields. The ongoing surplus of wine has led winemakers in several countries to call for action at the EU level. France and Germany have advocated for “grubbing-up” initiatives, which involve uprooting vines to reduce oversupply.

In December, members of the European Parliament and the European Council reached a preliminary agreement on measures to support the EU’s wine sector. This includes using EU funds to back vine uprooting plans aimed at balancing supply with falling demand.

The Commission’s report also highlights risks to export growth. The EU has been temporarily affected by declining shipments to its main export market, the US. Wine exports from the EU are expected to drop by 0.6% per year between 2025 and 2035, while imports are forecasted to fall by 1.9% annually during the same period. The UK, another major market for EU wine exports, is also seeing reduced shipments.

Although demand for EU wines is increasing in regions such as Latin America and Africa, this growth is not expected to offset declines in traditional markets or stabilize overall exports. The outlook suggests that both producers and policymakers will need to adapt to changing consumer habits and global market conditions in the years ahead.