Portugal’s Wine Production Plunges 20% to Decade Low as Extreme Weather Hits Agriculture

Wine production in Portugal has dropped by 20% this year, reaching its lowest level in the past decade, according to initial estimates released Friday by the country’s National Institute of Statistics (INE). The decline is attributed mainly to intense spring rains and extreme summer heat, which affected vineyards across the country. Despite the lower volume, producers expect the quality of this year’s wine to remain high, with balanced sugar levels and good aromatic concentration.

The INE’s first estimate for the 2025 Economic Accounts for Agriculture highlights that heavy rainfall and mild temperatures during spring encouraged the spread of downy mildew, a fungal disease that reduced both the number and weight of grapes. Later, extreme heat in the summer caused sunburn and dehydration in the fruit, further impacting yields.

Olive oil production is also expected to fall by 9.7% in 2024, reflecting a roughly 20% drop in olive harvests for the current campaign. However, both olives and olive oil are anticipated to be of good quality. With global supply recovering, olive oil prices are projected to decrease by about 5%.

The report notes some positive trends in fruit production. Overall fruit output is expected to rise by 2.2%, driven by increases in cherries (up 5%), kiwis (up 10%), strawberries, and small berries (up 17.2%). Fruit prices are also estimated to increase by 3.1%, except for apples, pears, and olives.

Cereal production faces a more challenging outlook. Total cereal output is forecast to decrease by 9.1% due to adverse weather conditions. Wheat production is expected to fall sharply by 25.5%, barley by 21.6%, and oats by 29.3%. Corn and rice are each projected to decline by 5%. The drop in cereal volumes has been compounded by a 12.4% decrease in base prices.

Vegetable and horticultural products are also set for a decline, with an overall volume reduction of 2.2%. Fresh vegetables are down by 4.4%, with tomato production for industry falling significantly by 20%. Potato output has decreased slightly by 0.7%, but prices have dropped more substantially—down 15.6%—due to increased European supply and lower domestic demand.

In total, plant production is expected to see a nominal decrease of 4.4% in 2025, resulting from a volume increase of 3.7% but a price reduction of 0.8%. Most plant products are forecasted to register lower values except for fruits and some vegetables.

Animal production shows a different trend, with an estimated volume increase of 0.5% and base prices rising by 5.5%, leading to a nominal growth of 6%. This growth is mainly driven by cattle (up 8.6%), pigs (up 1%), poultry (up 6.7%), milk (up 5.4%), and eggs (up 33.2%).

However, cattle production volume is expected to fall by 6.2% due to fewer adult animals and calves available for slaughter, partly because of continued demand from Spain for Portuguese cattle. This scarcity has pushed cattle prices up significantly—by nearly 16% compared to last year.

Pig production is set to rise by 6% in volume due to increased slaughtering of fattening pigs and breeders, though prices have dropped by almost 5%. Sheep and goat production will likely decrease by about 15.6%, reflecting fewer animals slaughtered as herds shrink—a trend worsened by disease outbreaks such as Bluetongue and increased exports of live lambs to Israel.

Poultry production is expected to grow in both volume (up nearly 5%) and price (up almost 2%), especially for chicken, which remains in high demand. Turkey production may fall by over 9%, though this could change depending on end-of-year slaughter patterns; duck meat output is also down more than 7%, largely due to avian flu outbreaks that forced culling.

Milk production should see modest gains in both volume (up less than one percent) and price (up nearly five percent), benefiting all types—cow, sheep, and goat milk—thanks to higher payments to producers.

Egg production stands out with an estimated increase of over seven percent in volume and a sharp rise in price—more than twenty-four percent—driven by strong demand and limited global supply amid ongoing avian flu cases in several countries, especially Spain.

These figures reflect how weather extremes and disease outbreaks have shaped Portugal’s agricultural landscape this year, affecting both crop yields and livestock numbers while influencing market prices at home and abroad.