Italian Wine Exports to U.S. Fall Nearly 12% as Tariffs and Weak Dollar Hit Market

Italian wine exports to the United States have experienced a significant decline since the second half of 2025, as new tariffs and a weaker dollar have combined to reduce both sales volumes and revenues. According to data from Wine Monitor, an observatory run by the Italian economic research institute Nomisma, the overall export value of Italian wine to the U.S. dropped by nearly 12%, bringing the market down to about €5.5 billion. This downturn follows a period of accelerated shipments in anticipation of the new U.S. tariffs, but once these trade measures took effect, the sector began to feel their full impact.

The weakening dollar has made Italian wines more expensive for American buyers, while tariffs have further increased costs along the supply chain. These factors have exposed structural weaknesses in a market that was already facing declining wine consumption over recent years. The temporary surge in demand after the Covid-19 pandemic had masked some of these underlying issues, but the current environment has brought them back into focus.

Wine Monitor reports that part of the damage has been contained by adjustments within the supply chain. Producers and importers have absorbed some of the tariff costs themselves, sacrificing margins to prevent a sharper drop in export volumes. However, this strategy has not been enough to avoid declines across most categories.

The premium segment of Italian wines has been particularly affected. Shipments of Italian PDO (Protected Designation of Origin) wines to the U.S. through November 2025 reached 2.37 million hectoliters, valued at €1.3 billion. Compared with the same period in 2024, this represents a 2.6% decrease in volume and a 6.2% drop in value. Prosecco has shown some resilience, with overseas sales increasing by 1.3% in volume despite a 2% decline in value. In contrast, PDO red wines from regions such as Tuscany, Piedmont, and Veneto have suffered value losses exceeding 7%.

Denis Pantini, head of Wine Monitor at Nomisma, explained that tariffs have caused significant disruption throughout the industry. He noted that after an initial phase of stockpiling to avoid new tariffs, shipments declined as the U.S. domestic market struggled to absorb surplus supply. To keep retail prices competitive for American consumers, producers have been forced to lower average prices across most categories, contributing to the overall decline in export values.

These challenges are prompting Italian wineries to reconsider their international strategies. Many are now looking to strengthen their presence in other countries and seek new markets outside the U.S., including Eastern European nations like Poland and the Czech Republic and Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Thailand.

The situation has been further complicated by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East following military actions involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran. The conflict has disrupted international logistics and transport corridors, reducing the availability of operational carriers below minimal demand levels. This shortage is driving up transport costs and making many export operations economically unsustainable.

With traditional markets under pressure, finding alternative outlets for Italian wine has become urgent. However, not all global markets are expanding. China’s total wine imports have declined both in volume—just above 2 million hectoliters—and value—around €1.3 billion—with drops across almost all product categories except sparkling wines. Other mature markets such as the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and Japan have also contracted to varying degrees.

South Korea stands out as an exception with stronger demand for imported wines. Brazil offers another encouraging sign: wine imports there grew by 3.5% in volume and 1.9% in value during 2025 compared with 2024, driven mainly by bottled still and semi-sparkling wines from Italy’s Veneto region. Exports of Italian PDO wines to Brazil are showing positive momentum that could increase further if trade relations between Europe and South America continue to improve under agreements like EU–Mercosur.

As Italian producers adapt to these shifting conditions, they face ongoing uncertainty about trade policy, currency fluctuations, and global logistics—all factors that will shape their strategies for reaching consumers worldwide in the coming years.