Global bulk wine market faces prolonged slowdown as inventories rise and exports fall

Ciatti has just published its latest global report analyzing various key issues currently affecting the global wine market.

In this way, the global bulk wine market remained subdued through July and early August, with activity quieter than usual in several key producing countries. This slowdown comes as the Northern Hemisphere enters its traditional summer holiday period and prepares for harvest, but the current level of inactivity is more pronounced than in previous years. Export statistics from major wine-producing nations confirm that 2025 has seen a deepening of the sluggishness that has persisted since the end of the pandemic-driven retail demand surge.

In California, cooler-than-normal weather in July led to localized outbreaks of powdery mildew and delayed grape maturation in some areas. Despite this, harvest timing is largely on track, especially in the Central Valley where temperatures returned to seasonal highs by August. The state’s grape crop is expected to fall below 3 million tons for a second consecutive year, well under the five-year average of 3.4 million tons. Extensive mothballing and minimal farming of vineyards have contributed to this decline, particularly as uncontracted grapes are left unharvested. The bulk wine market in California remains slow, with most activity focused on opportunistic buyers seeking low-priced wines for private-label programs. Export demand is steady from the UK and Asia, but Canadian demand remains weak due to ongoing provincial restrictions on US alcohol imports.

Argentina’s bulk wine market also experienced a quiet July, with limited European demand and only some domestic requests for 2025 vintage samples. North American interest has been slow, likely reflecting both sluggish retail sales and uncertainty over tariffs. The Argentine government continues to negotiate a trade deal with the US that could remove tariffs on up to 80% of products, including wine, but the baseline 10% rate remains in effect. As of July 1, Argentina’s wine stocks were up 2.8% year-on-year, with red wine volumes increasing and white wine stocks declining. Export volumes fell by nearly 7% in the first seven months of 2025 compared to the same period last year. The peso weakened against the dollar amid political uncertainty and efforts to service IMF debt, while inflation remains high but has eased slightly.

Chile’s bulk market mirrored global trends, remaining quiet through July and early August. Domestic demand was stable, but international business focused mainly on logistics for already contracted wines. Chile’s total wine export volumes dropped by over 5% in the first half of 2025 compared to last year, unwinding some of the recovery seen in 2024 after a difficult 2023. The official crush figure for 2025 was announced at 838.6 million liters—down nearly 10% from last year but higher than many had expected. Rainfall deficits were sharply reduced by heavy precipitation in July and early August, improving water reserves ahead of the next growing season.

In Europe, France saw a milder July following an early summer heatwave, which slowed grape maturation slightly and delayed harvest by up to a week in some regions. The Ministry of Agriculture forecasts a national crop size between 40 and 42.5 million hectoliters—up from last year and close to recent averages. However, wildfires have been a concern in southern France due to dry conditions and the removal of vineyards that once acted as firebreaks. Bulk wine suppliers are increasingly flexible on pricing as they seek to clear inventory before the new crush begins, especially after a US tariff increase on EU wines from 10% to 15% took effect August 1.

Spain experienced a similarly mild July after an early heatwave, delaying harvest by several days to a week depending on varietal and region. National production is expected to be in line with the five-year average at around 38-40 million hectoliters. Market activity was quiet as suppliers were content with volumes sold earlier in the campaign; availability is now tight for certain high-alcohol whites and reds. Spain’s export volumes fell by 7% over the past year but showed improvement in May.

Italy reported milder temperatures and rain across much of the country through July into early August, delaying harvest except in drought-affected areas like northern Puglia and Sicily where picking began earlier for Pinot Grigio and Chardonnay. White wines such as Prosecco continue to perform well internationally—Prosecco DOC bottlings rose over 5% year-on-year in July—while red wines face greater challenges due to falling sales at US retail and increased tariffs on EU goods.

South Africa focused on shipping contracted wines during this period as international demand for new programs remained limited. The US imposed a steep tariff increase on South African wine imports (from 10% to 30%) effective August 7, prompting producers to ship inventory ahead of the change. Availability remains good across most varietals except for Pinot Grigio and entry-level Dry White; prices are stable but potentially negotiable as suppliers look to move stock before year-end.

Australia’s bulk market was also quiet as buyers waited for their own harvests before making new commitments. Wine Australia reported a modest increase in total export volume (up 3%) and value (up 13%) for the year ending June 2025, driven mainly by renewed Chinese purchases after punitive tariffs were lifted earlier this year. However, exports elsewhere—including to the US—declined significantly. Recent rainfall helped irrigated regions but did not fully offset ongoing precipitation deficits; water prices remain high enough that growers are weighing input costs carefully ahead of next season.

New Zealand faces similar challenges after a very large crop in 2025 left suppliers seeking buyers for older Sauvignon Blanc parcels at competitive prices—a situation made more difficult by a new US tariff increase from 10% to 15%. The higher tariff is expected to cost New Zealand’s wine exporters over NZD100 million annually.

Across all markets, rising prices have been cited as a key reason younger consumers are drinking less wine—a trend confirmed by recent surveys in the US and likely mirrored elsewhere. Wine is losing ground not only to beer and spirits but also ready-to-drink (RTD) beverages among younger drinkers who are open to innovation in packaging and style.

With large inventories still present globally and sales slow at retail level—especially in Europe and North America—suppliers are increasingly open-minded about export opportunities and multi-year deals at competitive prices. The coming months will be critical as harvests progress across both hemispheres and producers adjust strategies amid ongoing economic pressures and shifting consumer preferences worldwide.