California's 2024 wine grape harvest projected to be smallest since 2004

California's 2024 wine grape harvest is projected to be the smallest since 2004, according to preliminary data from the US Department of Agriculture. The report, released on February 10, indicates a total crush of 2.844 million tonnes of wine grapes, excluding raisin and table grapes. This is a significant drop from the 3.685 million tonnes recorded in 2023. The decrease in yield varies across different regions and producers. Despite the lower volume, winemakers in several areas have expressed optimism about the quality of the 2024 vintage.

Audra Cooper, director of grape brokerage at Turrentine Brokerage, noted that the industry hasn't seen such a low crop since 2004. She described the data as surprising but acknowledged a potential benefit. The reduction in Cabernet Sauvignon production, down 31% from 2023 and 22% from the five-year average, could help address the oversupply from previous years. The impact of the grape crush varies by region. The North Coast experienced a 15% decrease compared to 2023, yet it remains 3% above its five-year average. In contrast, the Central Coast saw a 35% decline from 2023 and is 29% below its five-year average.

Brian Clements, vice-president at Turrentine, reported that around 100,000 tonnes of grapes were left unharvested in 2024, highlighting ongoing challenges in the industry. Oversupply is particularly problematic for wines priced under $12 a bottle, according to a report by Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). However, demand for premium wines remains strong, with some wineries increasing sales in 2024. SVB's 2025 industry report suggests that the current supply situation could benefit consumers seeking good deals. The report also emphasizes the need for the wine industry to appeal more to consumers aged 30 to 45, as younger adults are not consuming wine at the same rate as the Boomer generation.

Rob McMillan, founder of SVB's wine division, stated that the industry is experiencing a significant shift, marking the first demand-based correction in three decades. Despite these challenges, more than half of the wineries surveyed by SVB reported their financial health as good or strong. The report highlights the resilience of winery owners, particularly those with established brands and properties, who are expected to navigate through this challenging period successfully.