Scottish Whisky Industry Fears Impact of Trump's Trade Policies

Scottish whisky makers are concerned about the potential impact of Trump's trade policies. The threat of tariffs from the "America first" advocate looms over Mexico, Canada, China, the EU, and possibly the UK, which he claims has "crossed the line" in terms of trade. The Scotch industry, which includes 150 distilleries, is still reeling from the 25% tariffs imposed by the US in 2019, which reportedly cost £600 million in a year and a half.

On the day of Trump's re-election, Scottish Prime Minister John Swinney was working to prevent the whisky industry from being hit with tariffs on all products entering the US. This concern extends to small distilleries like Nc'nean, which has been exporting to the US for a year and a half. Any tariffs could jeopardize their goal of making a third of their revenue from the US market.

Nc'nean, located in the western Highlands, is unique in that it is the only distillery in Scotland that produces organic, carbon-neutral whisky from local barley. The company has made significant efforts to enter the US market, which requires a state-by-state approach. They currently sell their products in 28 states, focusing primarily on New York and California.

The distillery's commitment to sustainability and its female founder set it apart in the Scotch whisky industry, which could be key to its success in the US market. However, US tariffs would undoubtedly be "bad news". A 25% tariff would be difficult to manage, while a 10% tariff would be "much more manageable". If the tariffs were to become a reality, the company would likely reduce its profit margin in hopes that the measure would be temporary.

Despite the potential challenges, the US remains the top export market for Scottish whisky, bringing in £1 billion per year. Major brands like Diageo (Johnnie Walker) have expressed concern about tariffs, while others like Pernod-Ricard (Ballantine's, Chivas Regal) and William Grant (Glenfiddich) have remained silent. The Scottish Whisky Association has only expressed its eagerness to work with the US.

For now, the industry remains optimistic, hoping for a trade solution between the US and the UK. Trump has expressed his appreciation for UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his confidence in finding a trade solution.