Heineken says its Mexico beer business returned to growth in the third quarter

Heineken said its beer business returned to growth in Mexico during the third quarter, but the company is warning that the rebound remains uncertain after a weak start to 2026.

The Dutch brewer reported higher volume and net revenue in Mexico between July and September, supported by most of its sales channels. Harold van den Broek, Heineken’s chief financial officer, said on an investor call that Mexico and Brazil had both resumed growth, but he described the recovery in both markets as “very fragile” after speaking with local teams.

The company’s comments point to a market that improved faster than management expected, even as it remains exposed to pressure on household budgets, pricing and broader economic sentiment. For the beverage industry, the turnaround in two of the region’s largest beer markets is closely watched because it can shape decisions on pricing, distribution and production plans well beyond a single company.

Van den Broek said traditional retail outlets were among the main drivers of growth in Mexico. Local reports also highlighted the role of Heineken’s SIX store network and small neighborhood shops. The company has been reviewing those points of sale one by one to refine the product mix it recommends and to make sure prices are being respected in the market.

The gains in Mexico were spread across different parts of Heineken’s portfolio. In its business update, Heineken N.V. said Miller High Life led growth in its premium segment, while Tecate Original, Indio and Dos Equis Lager contributed to gains in mainstream beer. The company said Mexico grew in the quarter, but it did not disclose a country-specific growth rate.

The caution from management reflects how quickly conditions had changed earlier in the year. Van den Broek said Heineken entered 2026 carefully because of high interest rates, political uncertainty and difficulty predicting the direction of the U.S. economy, all of which could affect Mexico. He said the resilience of the beer market in the third quarter was a positive surprise, but added that it was still too early to call it a stable return to sustained growth for the category.

Heineken’s broader results showed the same shift. In its August half-year report, Heineken Holding N.V. had recorded a decline in volume in the Americas. By its October trading update, the company was identifying Mexico and Brazil among the markets that had moved back into growth.

Across the Americas, total volume rose 2.1% in the third quarter, while net revenue increased 3.1%, helped in part by an easier comparison base. At the global level, Heineken reported 4.8% organic growth in total volume and 4.6% organic growth in net revenue. Based on those results, the brewer maintained its forecast for 2026 operating profit growth in a range of 2% to 6%.

Management also said part of the work involves correcting issues created by the company itself. Van den Broek acknowledged that Heineken had introduced some volatility into its own pricing. He said the brewer has recovered some market share, but remains below the level it wants.

That has pushed the company toward a more measured approach in Mexico, where affordability remains central to demand. The strategy has included moderate price increases and changes in the offer on store shelves, along with new products designed to bring back or retain consumers. In practical terms, that means balancing premium brands with labels aimed at broader consumption, while trying to avoid pushing prices beyond what consumers will accept.

One example raised by management was the fast growth of Amstel Ultra. The brand, introduced in Mexico in 2018, was positioned to compete for the same consumer targeted by Michelob Ultra from Grupo Modelo, with a low-calorie and low-carbohydrate pitch. That part of the market has become more important as brewers try to reach drinkers who want lighter products without leaving the beer category.

The competition has been strong enough to spill into the courts. A dispute over the visual identity of the cans returned to Mexico’s Supreme Court in 2026, underlining how valuable that segment has become for the largest brewers.

For Heineken, the Mexico rebound offers needed support after a difficult first half, but the company’s language suggests it does not yet see enough evidence to declare a full recovery. The fact that growth was tied to traditional stores, careful price management and selected brands also suggests that demand is improving unevenly, not across the board. That matters for brewers and other beverage companies because Mexico and Brazil often serve as signals of how much room producers have to raise prices, where they need to invest in retail execution, and how quickly they can expand output without risking a reversal in consumer demand.