U.S. beer sales fell 5.3% over 12 weeks, Bernstein says

U.S. beer sales kept falling in recent weeks, with total market volumes down 5.3% over the latest 12-week period, according to Bernstein, a sign of continued pressure on one of the country’s largest beverage categories.

The research firm said the decline was 6.9% on a two-week trailing basis and 7.2% on a four-week basis. Bernstein said the weakness has been broad across major brewers, though it added that the pace of deterioration has stabilized in the past two weeks after declines that began following an increase in gasoline prices.

The figures matter because beer remains a core business for large beverage groups and a closely watched gauge of consumer demand in supermarkets, convenience stores and other retail channels across the United States. A sustained drop in volumes can point to tighter household spending, shifts toward other alcohol categories or nonalcoholic drinks, and stronger resistance to higher shelf prices.

Among the largest suppliers, Constellation Brands continued to outperform the broader market and gain share even as its own volumes declined. Bernstein said Constellation’s beer volumes fell 2.3% over the 12-week period, a smaller drop than the overall market, allowing it to post a year-over-year share gain of 50 basis points. Its market share reached 17.8%.

On a four-week basis, Constellation’s brand performance was mixed. Modelo Especial fell 6.5% from a year earlier, Corona Extra declined 8.2%, while Pacifico rose 10.4%. The results suggest that even companies taking share are not immune to weaker category demand, though some brands continue to attract consumers despite the broader slowdown.

Anheuser-Busch InBev also saw declines, but less severe than some rivals in parts of its portfolio. Bernstein said the brewer’s volumes were down 4.2% on a 12-week trailing basis. Over four weeks, Michelob Ultra grew 0.9%, while Busch Light slipped 0.9%. Larger declines were recorded for Bud Light, down 12.5%, Budweiser, down 9.5%, Busch, down 12.8%, and Natural Light, down 8.6%.

Molson Coors posted a steeper contraction. Its volumes fell 7.5% over the 12-week period, according to Bernstein. In the latest four weeks, Coors Light dropped 8.5%, Miller Lite fell 9.5%, Keystone Light declined 2.7% and Blue Moon was down 11.9%. Coors Banquet was one of the few bright spots in that lineup, rising 1.4%.

Boston Beer Company recorded some of the sharpest declines among the brewers cited by Bernstein. Its volumes were down 13.7% over the trailing 12 weeks and fell 16.8% on a four-week basis. Heineken’s U.S. business also weakened, with volumes down 11.1% over 12 weeks and 12.5% over four weeks.

Diageo, which has exposure to beer through Guinness and other brands in the U.S., posted a smaller decline than the market as a whole. Bernstein said its volumes fell 1.7% over the trailing 12 weeks, or 360 basis points better than the broader market.

The report points to a market where nearly every major brewer is facing lower sales volumes at retail, even if competitive positions are still shifting within that decline. Constellation appears to be extending its lead among import-driven growth stories, while several mainstream domestic labels remain under heavier pressure.

Bernstein linked the start of the recent weakness to higher gasoline prices, suggesting that rising fuel costs may have reduced discretionary spending or changed shopping patterns for beer buyers. While the firm said trends have stabilized over the last two weeks, the data still show a category under strain heading into an important seasonal period for beer consumption.

For producers and distributors, that creates a difficult balance between protecting margins and defending volume. If demand remains soft, brewers may face more pressure to rely on promotions, sharpen brand positioning or accept slower sales as consumers become more selective about what they buy and where they spend.

The latest numbers also reinforce how uneven performance has become inside company portfolios. Premium light beer and certain import brands are holding up better than many legacy mainstream labels, while some niche or fast-growing names continue to expand even as total category volumes contract.

That divergence is likely to remain central for investors and industry executives watching whether this downturn reflects temporary consumer caution or a deeper reset in U.S. beer demand. For now, Bernstein’s data show that the market is still shrinking on every measured time frame from two weeks to three months, with only limited pockets of growth among major brands.