Italy’s wine exports lose momentum

Italy’s wine exporters are facing a more fragmented global market, with traditional buyers weakening and newer markets offering the clearest path for growth, according to Denis Pantini, head of Nomisma Wine Monitor, who spoke Monday at the 79th Assoenologi Congress in Conegliano, in the Prosecco hills of Veneto.

Pantini said the industry can no longer rely on its established export destinations alone. He pointed to a global wine market that has been shrinking after years of expansion, with world imports falling to 110 million hectoliters in 2025 and global consumption dropping to 208 million hectoliters. Europe posted the steepest decline, down 18%, while Asia was dragged lower by China. By contrast, Africa rose 26%, Oceania 10% and the Americas 4%.

The United States remains the largest wine market in the world, with more than 33 million hectoliters consumed domestically, including about 12 million hectoliters imported. But Pantini said the American market has weakened over the past three years, and unlike earlier downturns, the current contraction is also affecting U.S. producers. Imported wine now accounts for 38% of sales in the country, up from roughly 30% two decades ago.

For Italy, the slowdown has been broad. After surpassing 8 billion euros in wine exports in 2024, shipments fell to 7.8 billion euros in 2025, down 3.6%. The decline touched nearly every category: bottled still and sparkling wines fell 4.3% in value and 2.2% in volume; sparkling wines slipped 2.5% in value but rose 0.7% in volume; bulk wine declined 0.2% in value and 2.5% in volume; and large-format bottles fell 3.9% in value and 4% in volume.

Performance varied by denomination. Prosecco, after a decade of uninterrupted growth, slipped 1.8% in value but held up in volume with a 2.6% gain. Tuscan reds fell 9.7% in value and 1.7% in volume. Piedmont reds rose 1.8% in value and 6.5% in volume, while Sicilian still whites gained 2.4% in value despite a slight drop in volume. Tuscan white DOC wines performed especially well, rising 6.4% in value and 13.9% in volume.

Pantini said the main concern is not only lower volumes but also weaker prices and changes in the mix of wines being exported. Italy has fared better than several competitors, he said, citing New Zealand’s 5% decline, Australia’s drop of 14.6%, France’s fall of 4.4%, Spain’s decline of 5.1% and a sharp 36% drop for U.S. wine exports.

He linked the American decline to tariff policies under President Donald Trump, saying retaliatory tariffs from key markets such as Canada and China have effectively shut down major channels for U.S. wine abroad.

The first quarter of 2026 has remained difficult for Italy as well. Compared with the same period in 2025, exports to the United States were down nearly 40%, though Pantini said that figure was distorted by early stockpiling ahead of expected tariffs last year; compared with the first quarter of 2024, the decline is closer to 30%. Japan showed a strong rebound, with purchases from Italy up 22%, and Canada rose 5%, while China remained deeply weak at minus27.5%.

Pantini argued that Italy still has room to grow by increasing the share of production sold abroad. He said Italian wineries currently export about 40%-45% of their output and could realistically move toward Australia’s level of 58%, without trying to match New Zealand’s near-total export model.

He said future growth will depend on markets outside Italy’s traditional core, which now account for a larger share of exports than they did a decade ago but still remain underdeveloped relative to their potential. Analysts identified about a dozen emerging markets by combining historical demand for Italian wine with International Monetary Fund growth forecasts through 2030 and population size.

Those markets are concentrated in three regions: Eastern Europe and Central Asia, including Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic and Kazakhstan; Asia and East Asia, including South Korea and Thailand; and Latin America, from Mexico to Colombia.

Pantini also highlighted opportunities tied to recent European Union free-trade agreements. In Mercosur countries, a bloc of about 260 million people with roughly $3 trillion in GDP, wine imports have risen 145% over five years. Tariffs are set to disappear over the next seven years, which could improve prospects for Italian wines that currently hold an estimated 8% share there, led by Tuscan reds among Brazilian consumers.

India remains a longer-term challenge because consumption and imports are still small relative to its population of about 1.47 billion people and GDP of about $3.8 trillion. Still, Italy already holds about a10% share of that market, helped by Prosecco’s popularity.

Australia is another target market after a new free-trade agreement opened access to a country with high per-capita income and about $1.85 trillion in GDP.

At home, Pantini said the industry faces a different problem: keeping younger consumers engaged as drinking habits change.

Italy’s domestic wine market fell from 22.3 million hectoliters in 2024 to 20.2 million hectoliters in 2025, continuing a long shift toward sparkling wines. In 2015, spumante accounted for just over one bottle out of every ten consumed in Italy; today it is about one out of every six. Red wine’s share has fallen from 41% to 37%, while rosé stands at about7% and still white wines remain just under40%.

The pandemic-era surge in supermarket sales has faded, leaving domestic consumption under pressure again by volume.

The only major exception so far is Metodo Classico sparkling wine, which represents about10% of the sparkling category but grew25% by volume and17.5% by value in the first quarter of this year.

Pantini said demographic change may prove even more important than market trends abroad. Istat projections show Italy’s population falling below58 million by2035, down from more than60 million at its peak around2015.

The consumer base is aging as habitual drinking declines across age groups. Among Italians under24, drinking patterns have long been more occasional than regular, so the recent crisis has had less impact there. But among people ages35 to50, habitual consumption has dropped sharply over the past20 years, from50%-60% in2006 to30%-35% today.

That shift suggests a break from Italy’s traditional Mediterranean model of daily wine consumption with meals and raises questions about whether drinking is becoming more concentrated on weekends and social occasions instead.

Pantini said that if Italian wine continues moving toward occasional use and weekend excess rather than moderate daily consumption,

the sector risks losing one of its defining cultural traits.