Fine Wine Market Rebounds as Liv-ex Survey Predicts 2.1% Growth in Next Year

The fine wine market is showing signs of renewed optimism after several challenging years, according to recent surveys and industry analysis presented at a Liv-ex event earlier this month. Tom Burchfield, head of market intelligence at Liv-ex, shared results from a global trade survey indicating that the Fine Wine 100 index is expected to rise by 2.1% over the next year. This outlook contrasts with last year’s sentiment, when most respondents predicted a 1.9% decline for 2025. The shift in expectations is notable, especially considering that just a year ago, even the most optimistic regional forecast—from the UK trade—projected only a modest 2.5% increase.

James Miles, also speaking at the event, described the past three years as “utterly brutal” for the fine wine sector but cautioned against excessive pessimism. He emphasized the need for renewed enthusiasm in the market and explained that recent trends reflect a typical inventory cycle. According to Miles, the market is now correcting previous imbalances, and several indicators suggest that recovery is already underway.

One key metric supporting this view is the bid-to-offer ratio, which has rebounded strongly in recent months. Additionally, the Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000 index—a broad measure of market performance—has posted gains every month since August. These positive signals are not limited to Europe; Chinese wine imports have increased for the first time in nearly a decade, and high-end Burgundy wines are seeing more consistent trading activity in Hong Kong.

The United States market has also shown improvement following last April’s tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Since summer, US buyer activity has been on the rise. Global economic factors such as falling inflation and lower interest rates have contributed to this momentum by creating more favorable conditions for buyers and sellers alike.

Miles noted that prices in the secondary market appear to have reached their lowest point, particularly for older vintages that are both being consumed and are in limited supply. While he acknowledged that younger wines in the primary market may take longer to recover, he believes that rising prices for back vintages will provide support as the adjustment process continues.

Overall, industry leaders at Liv-ex’s event agreed that while some caution remains among traders and collectors, there is growing evidence of an “interesting change of sentiment.” The combination of improving economic conditions, increased global demand, and positive price trends suggests that the fine wine market’s adjustment is well underway and that prospects for growth are strengthening after years of volatility.