Global Wine Industry Faces Lowest Production in Decades as Trade Remains Resilient Amid Shifting Consumer Trends

In 2024, the global wine industry faced a complex landscape marked by declining production and consumption, yet international wine trade remained stable. According to data from the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), global wine production dropped by 4.8% to 225.8 million hectoliters, the lowest level in over six decades. This decline was attributed to severe weather events and increased disease pressure in vineyards across major producing regions. At the same time, global wine consumption fell by 3.3% to an estimated 214.2 million hectoliters, reaching its lowest point since 1961.

Despite these simultaneous declines, global wine exports showed resilience. Export volumes increased slightly by 0.8% to 100.2 million hectoliters, while export value fell only marginally by 0.5% to €36.04 billion. The average export price per liter decreased by 1.2% to €3.60. These figures indicate that while the overall market contracted, international trade flows managed to hold steady, supported by shifts in product categories and supply chain strategies.

A closer look at product categories reveals significant variation beneath the surface of aggregate stability. Bulk wine exports rose sharply, with volume up by 3.9% and value increasing by 9.3%. This growth offset declines in bottled wine exports, which fell by 1% in volume but remained stable in value due to higher average prices. Sparkling wine exports saw a slight increase in volume (0.1%) but a notable drop in value (3.9%) as average prices declined. Bag-in-Box wines, a small segment mainly consumed in Scandinavia, experienced a contraction of nearly 4% in both volume and value.

The increase in bulk wine trade is largely attributed to heightened production volatility caused by climate change and the need for intra-industry trade among producers facing erratic harvests. For example, Italy’s reduced harvests in recent years led to increased imports of bulk wine and must to meet domestic demand and maintain export levels.

Consumer preferences continued to shift toward white, sparkling, and low- or no-alcohol wines in 2024, as reported by both trade data and industry experts. White wines proved more resilient than red or rosé wines, with exports declining less sharply and even growing slightly in value terms. Sparkling wines also benefited from changing tastes, although price pressures affected overall export values.

Among exporting countries, France, Italy, and Spain accounted for more than half of global export volume and nearly two-thirds of export value but followed different trajectories in 2024. Italy outperformed its peers with a 4.7% increase in export value (€8.14 billion) and a 1.7% rise in volume (21.7 million hectoliters), driven largely by strong performance in sparkling wines such as Prosecco. France remained the leader in export value (€11.7 billion) but saw a decline of 2.4%, mainly due to falling Champagne sales and lower average prices despite a slight increase in volume. Spain’s export volume dropped by 4.5%, but its export value rose by 1.6%, thanks to higher average prices for bulk wine.

New World exporters also saw mixed results as they adapted to shifting market conditions and trade barriers. Australia recorded a strong rebound after China lifted tariffs on its wines; export value jumped by over 30%, while volume increased by nearly 7%. Chile strengthened its position with double-digit growth in both volume and value, particularly through exports to the UK, USA, and Brazil, though its average price slipped slightly. The United States increased its export volume by more than 15%, driven mainly by sales to the UK, Germany, and Denmark.

On the import side, the United States remained the world’s largest market for wine by value and showed tentative signs of recovery after a sharp decline in imports during 2023 that was linked to overstocking during the pandemic period. In 2024, U.S. import value rose by 1.6%, while volume edged up just 0.2%. However, this modest rebound may have been influenced by anticipatory stockpiling ahead of possible new tariffs on European wines following the U.S presidential election.

The United Kingdom saw a slight increase in import volumes but experienced lower average prices and a small decline in total import value amid ongoing economic uncertainty and changes related to Brexit and new alcohol duty rules set for implementation in 2025.

Germany’s role as a high-volume importer continued to shrink; import volumes fell by over 7%, with values down more than 9%. This trend reflects both declining domestic consumption and increased reliance on domestic surplus stocks rather than imports.

Other markets showed varied results: Canada registered modest growth; China rebounded strongly as trade barriers eased; while Japan, Switzerland, Belgium, France, Sweden, and others reported declines in import values.

Industry experts identified several key challenges facing the sector at the end of 2024: economic pressures from inflation and sluggish growth; declining consumer interest—especially among younger generations—and increasingly restrictive alcohol policies worldwide.

A major development occurred with the escalation of U.S.-EU trade tensions early in 2025 when the U.S announced steep tariffs on European wine imports—initially set at 200%, later reduced but still volatile—which created significant uncertainty for exporters reliant on the American market such as France, Italy, Spain, New Zealand, and Argentina.

This policy environment has prompted concerns about long-term stability in global wine trade patterns and may lead exporters to diversify away from dependence on the U.S., seeking alternative markets to mitigate risk.

Italy’s experience stands out as a potential model for other countries facing similar challenges: its success is attributed not only to product innovation (notably sparkling wines) but also strategic supply management, branding excellence, adaptability to consumer trends—including low- and no-alcohol products—and effective use of regulatory frameworks like appellation systems that protect quality and reputation.

Looking ahead into 2025, special factors such as temporary stockpiling before tariff changes and shifting supply chains are expected to weigh on trade outcomes amid persistent economic uncertainty and evolving consumer behavior.

The global wine sector faces an environment where flexibility—both regulatory and commercial—will be essential for resilience against ongoing volatility driven by climate change impacts on production, policy shifts affecting trade flows, changing consumer preferences, and broader economic headwinds affecting demand worldwide.