Online food and beverage sales set to nearly double by 2030 but growth favors food over drinks

A new report released in June 2025 by Google and Deloitte offers a detailed look at the future of e-commerce in the food and beverage sector through 2030. The study, conducted between late 2024 and early 2025, draws on data from recent years and projects how online sales, consumer habits, and industry performance will evolve. The findings are based on more than 50 pages of analysis, with a significant focus on the beverage category.

The report identifies food and beverage as one of the fastest-growing segments in online retail, second only to fashion. The food and beverage market is described as convenience-driven, with frequent purchases but also significant logistical challenges, especially for perishable goods and last-mile delivery. Despite these challenges, beverages account for a large share of online grocery revenue in Europe—61% compared to food’s 39%. However, most sales in this sector still happen offline. In 2024, only 5.2% of global food and beverage revenue came from online channels.

The COVID-19 pandemic played a major role in accelerating online growth. Lockdowns led to more at-home consumption and home cooking, which boosted grocery sales online. Countries like Spain saw dramatic increases in online revenue—up 203% between 2019 and 2024. The report links this growth to demographic factors such as an aging population and increased use of shopping apps.

Looking ahead to 2030, the report forecasts that e-commerce in food and beverage omnichannel retail will nearly double, reaching $163 billion globally. However, growth will not be even across all categories. Online food sales are expected to outpace beverages, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12% for food versus 9.4% for beverages from 2025 to 2030.

The report explains this gap by pointing to two main factors. First, as more consumers do their full grocery shopping online, the larger share of food in the average basket drives overall growth. Second, beverage purchases are often impulsive and made in-store rather than planned ahead for online orders. Online grocery shopping tends to be more deliberate and list-based, which reduces spontaneous buying—a key driver for beverage sales in physical stores. The report notes that impulse purchases can make up as much as 62% of supermarket sales, a figure that is difficult to match online.

By 2030, the total value of the online beverage market is projected to reach $49.9 billion. However, its share of total online food and beverage sales will decline from 33.25% in 2025 to 30.7% in 2030.

Within beverages, there is a clear divide between non-alcoholic and alcoholic drinks. Non-alcoholic beverages are expected to lead the category with $32.4 billion in sales by 2030 and a CAGR of 9.8%. This subcategory is especially strong in markets like Italy and Poland. Alcoholic drinks face more challenges, with slower growth (CAGR of just 6.8%) and a projected market size of $10.8 billion by 2030—about one-third that of non-alcoholic drinks.

The report attributes the slow growth in alcoholic beverages to changing consumer attitudes toward health and wellness as well as economic pressures related to the cost of living. Analysis of Google search trends shows declining interest in alcohol while searches related to sports and fitness are rising. The authors recommend that brands reposition alcoholic drinks with a focus on health-conscious messaging if they want to stay relevant.

Despite these headwinds, alcoholic beverages are still expected to be among the top three growth subcategories in mature markets like the United Kingdom.

The second half of the report outlines strategies for beverage brands looking to succeed in this changing environment. One key challenge is replicating impulse buying behavior online. The report suggests using video content to create an engaging experience that bridges the sensory gap between digital and physical shopping. Brands should also optimize “add to cart” features and create digital checkout prompts that encourage last-minute purchases.

Another recommendation is for retailers to embrace hyper-personalization using both first-party and third-party data. This means tailoring product recommendations not just by dietary needs or taste preferences but also by ethical values or specific occasions.

Finally, the report addresses margin pressures in grocery delivery by suggesting two approaches: expanding private label offerings—since consumers are increasingly choosing either budget or premium products—and diversifying into more profitable non-food categories such as home goods.

The Google-Deloitte study provides a roadmap for retailers navigating an industry that remains fundamentally omnichannel despite rapid digital growth. While non-alcoholic beverages are set to drive much of the expansion online, brands across all categories will need to innovate their marketing strategies and adapt quickly if they want to capture new opportunities through 2030.