IWSR data reveals worldwide drop in alcohol consumption

In recent years, a noticeable shift has taken place in the world's biggest alcohol markets: people are drinking less and doing it less often. This global trend toward moderation has sparked debate within the beverage alcohol industry, with some calling it a passing phase and others warning it could threaten the sector's very existence. To understand what's happening, it's worth looking at the facts—where this change is occurring, who's driving it, how it's unfolding, and why it's happening now.

Data from IWSR, a leading source of alcohol market insights, shows that total beverage alcohol (TBA) consumption dropped worldwide in 2023. Growth in emerging markets like Brazil, Mexico, and India wasn't enough to offset declines in major developed markets such as China, the United States, and Europe. The numbers paint a clear picture: in the U.S., for instance, IWSR predicts the alcohol market will shrink by about 9% by 2028 compared to 2019. The forecast suggests this isn't a blip—the moderation trend is expected to stick around in these key regions through 2024 and beyond.

So, what's behind this shift? Consumers across different ages and income levels are making deliberate choices to cut back. Some join movements like Dry January, a month-long break from alcohol that's gained traction in recent years. Others are responding to public health warnings about alcohol's risks. Many are turning to no- or low-alcohol alternatives, while some simply prefer activities—like a night out or a weekend hike—that don't involve a drink. The latest IWSR Bevtrac survey, which polled drinkers in 15 major markets, found that 48% have actively reduced their alcohol intake over the past six months. Among those who use no- and low-alcohol products, that figure jumps to 68%, according to IWSR's No & Low Alcohol Strategic Study released this year.

The beverage alcohol industry isn't new to change. For the past two decades, it has adapted to declining volumes by pivoting away from cheap, high-volume products toward a different model. Companies have focused on premium offerings—lower volume but higher quality, higher priced, and higher margin. This shift, backed by heavy marketing investment, has paid off. Leading players have boosted profits significantly, creating larger profit pools that benefit suppliers, distributors, and retailers along the supply chain. The strategy has relied on a straightforward approach: build strong brands, understand what consumers want, make products that fit those needs, and ensure they're easy to find in stores and top of mind through advertising.

Looking ahead, the moderation trend shows no signs of slowing down through the rest of the 2020s. Different factors are fueling it—health concerns, lifestyle changes, rising living costs, and the growing availability of alcohol substitutes. For the industry, this means competition is about to get tougher. As consumers have more options—like a craft soda or a no-alcohol beer—on any given occasion, the moments when they choose alcohol are shrinking. This challenge is already evident in mature markets like the U.S. and Europe, but it's starting to emerge in developing markets too. Winning over consumers in those moments, and making them feel good about their choice, is becoming a bigger deal.

To stay ahead, companies will need to sharpen their focus on what drives consumer decisions. Understanding when and why people reach for a drink—or don't—will be key to building brands that can weather this shift. Data like IWSR's Bevtrac survey offers a window into those patterns, showing how people substitute one product for another and how markets are evolving. For the supply chain, the goal will be capturing more value even as volumes drop. The industry has reinvented itself before, and the next few years will test whether it can do it again as moderation reshapes the landscape.