Italy Surges while France Falters in Wine Trade

According to year-on-year data from customs of different countries analyzed by DelReyAWM up to October of last year, the global wine trade appears virtually stagnant at 100 million hectoliters (-0.8%), falling by -2.1% to 35.819 billion euros. This results in a loss of unit value of -1.3%, placing it at 3.58 euros per liter. Within this scenario, however, the world's major producers exhibit very different behaviors.

France, New Zealand, and Germany show the worst declines in the period, with a loss of 557 million euros (-4.6%) in the first case, 151 million in the second (-11.8%), and almost 53 million euros in the third (-4.9%). The loss of French revenue is spread between its sales of sparkling wines, where it loses 360 million euros, and those of other bottled wines, in which it invoices 203 million less in those 12 months than in the same previous period. Among the sparkling wines, it is the markets of Japan-Singapore (where it exports both directly and indirectly) and the U.S. where it suffers the greatest losses. In other bottled wines, its sales to the United Kingdom, China, and Germany register the greatest losses.

More drastic in relative terms is the decline observed in New Zealand's exports, which significantly reduces its revenue in its three main destinations, which account for almost three-quarters of sales: the U.S., the United Kingdom, and Australia (an intermediate step for the other two markets), where it records double-digit declines and more than 40 million euros in the Australian case and more than 52 million in the other two destinations. In the case of Germany, lower revenues in the Netherlands, Poland, and Switzerland are not compensated by the increases it achieves in the U.S., where it almost recovers the 86 million euros it invoiced in 2022.

On the other hand, exports of wines and must have increased in the year to October for other important producers such as Italy, Spain, Chile, the U.S., Portugal, Argentina, and South Africa. But at very different rates. While Chile and Argentina grow at a rate of 1.4% and 1.3% respectively, South Africa does so at 2.7%, Portugal at 2.5%, and the U.S. at 3.7%. Spain, for its part, records a growth of exports in comparable terms until October of 1.9%, to invoice 3.048 billion euros. But the best development in this period is highlighted by Australia and Italy, with increases in both cases of around 300 million euros. In the case of Australia, this represents an 11.8% increase, to stand at 1.543 billion euros, thanks especially to the recovery of its sales in China, which becomes its main market again after the lifting of special tariffs, and where it increases its revenue by almost 390 million euros.

Finally, Italy, with an increase in its sales of 3.8%, doubles the pace of the Spanish ones, adds 298 million in revenue, and manages to surpass 8 billion in 12 months. This improvement is achieved mainly in the U.S., Canada, and Russia, where it increases its sales by 7.4%, 18.5%, and 32.3% respectively. And it almost exactly divides this improvement between its exports of sparkling wines and non-sparkling bottled wines, with increases of 152 million in each of these categories.

In conclusion, within a relatively sluggish market, different global wine producers show very different variation rates up to October 2024, among which are not necessarily the exporters with lower average prices that are doing better, leading us to think about the importance of tracking market trends and improving distribution as keys to growth, within a context that continues to offer good possibilities.