Convenience retailers lift U.S. beer sales outlook to 3% growth

Convenience store retailers in the United States ended the third quarter with a more positive view of beer sales, even as they signaled that craft beer could face new pressure from ready-to-drink beverages next year.

According to Goldman Sachs’ latest Beverage Bytes survey, retailers representing about 10% of the U.S. convenience store channel, or roughly 15,000 stores, said they expect beer sales to rise 3% year over year. That was an improvement from the bank’s first-quarter survey, when respondents had projected 2% growth.

The findings, reported Wednesday by Brewbound, suggest sentiment around beer improved as 2026 progressed, at least in the convenience channel. That matters because convenience stores remain a key route to market for beer makers and for fast-growing single-serve beverage categories, including canned cocktails and other ready-to-drink products.

Goldman Sachs’ survey points to a market that is still growing, but not evenly across segments. While the overall beer category appears to be holding up better than earlier in the year, the outlook for shelf allocation is less favorable for craft brewers. The survey indicated that craft beer is expected to lose shelf space to RTDs in 2027.

That expected shift is important for the broader drinks business because space in convenience stores is limited and highly competitive. When retailers give more cooler or shelf space to one category, another category often loses visibility, availability, or both. For brewers, distillers, wholesalers, and beverage companies, even a small change in assortment can affect sales volumes, new product launches, and distribution plans.

The survey did not suggest a broad pullback in beer demand. Instead, it showed that retailers had become somewhat more confident that the category could post modest growth by the end of the year. A 3% increase is not a surge, but it marks an improvement from the earlier reading and indicates that beer has remained resilient in a channel that is watched closely by suppliers and investors.

At the same time, the warning for craft beer reflects a longer-running competitive trend. Ready-to-drink beverages have expanded rapidly in recent years, drawing attention from retailers because they can attract shoppers looking for convenience, variety, and spirits-based alternatives. If that momentum continues, craft brewers may face more pressure to defend existing placements in coolers and on shelves, especially in stores with limited room for slower-moving products.

The convenience store channel is especially significant because it captures high-frequency purchases and impulse buys. That makes it a useful indicator for beverage companies trying to understand where consumers are spending and which formats are gaining traction. A retailer’s decision to add more RTDs, or reduce craft facings, can ripple through wholesalers, production planning, and marketing strategy.

The Goldman Sachs survey covered only a portion of the market, but its sample size is still notable. Respondents accounted for about one in 10 convenience stores in the channel, giving the bank a wide enough base to track changes in sentiment over time. The move from an expected 2% gain in the first quarter to 3% in the third quarter suggests beer’s position improved during the year, even as competitive pressures inside the cooler remained intense.

For large beer suppliers, the results may offer some reassurance that the category is not weakening broadly in convenience stores. For smaller brewers, especially those in craft, the message is more mixed. Retailers may be more optimistic about beer overall, but that does not mean every part of the category will benefit equally.

The shift also underscores how convenience retailers are balancing established categories against newer ones. Beer still occupies a major place in the store set, but the growth of RTDs means buyers are reassessing what deserves limited space. In practice, that can favor brands or segments with stronger sales velocity, better margins, or wider consumer appeal.

Brewbound cited the Goldman Sachs survey as part of its coverage of category trends in off-premise retail. The report arrives as beverage companies continue to watch how U.S. shoppers divide spending across beer, spirits-based canned drinks, and other alternatives. If retailers follow through on plans to expand RTD space in 2027, the impact could extend beyond convenience stores and shape packaging, promotional spending, and portfolio decisions across the beverage sector.