Treasury Wine Estates' key U.S. brands above $10 posted a 5.4% retail volume decline

Treasury Wine Estates says its luxury wine business is improving in the United States, but retail data cited by Shanken News Daily show that the company’s main U.S. brands selling above $10 a bottle still posted an overall volume decline in measured channels.

The data, attributed to Circana and published by Shanken News Daily on Oct. 23, show that Treasury’s key U.S. brands above $10 a bottle recorded a combined 5.4% year-over-year drop in retail volume in the 52 weeks ended Oct. 4. The figures cover measured U.S. retail channels and do not represent Treasury’s full U.S. business.

The decline comes as the Australian wine group has been telling investors that conditions in the U.S. are getting better. Treasury Chief Executive Sam Fischer said the company has now posted three straight quarters of depletion growth for its luxury portfolio in the U.S. Depletions track sales from distributors to retailers and restaurants, while Circana’s figures measure retail takeaway in tracked channels. Because the two indicators cover different levels of the market, they cannot be used as direct proof that the entire U.S. business has recovered.

Still, the comparison gives a more mixed picture of the company’s standing in the market. Treasury’s strongest U.S. labels above $10 include several brands that grew in Circana-tracked retail channels over the latest 52-week period. Matua rose 6.5%, Daou increased 1.8%, and Frank Family Vineyards gained 0.8%. Other brands posted larger increases, including Stags’ Leap at 10.7%, The Pessimist at 24.8%, Beringer Knights Valley at 17.1%, Squealing Pig at 73.5%, Tapestry at 132.2%, Sterling Napa at 56.3%, and Drop of Sunshine at 181.4%.

But those gains were not enough to offset declines elsewhere in the portfolio, especially at 19 Crimes, which fell 19.1% in retail volume and remained the biggest drag on the group’s aggregate performance. Other brands that declined included Gabbiano, down 5.4%, Beaulieu Vineyard, down 5.1%, and Penfolds Max’s, down 7.4%.

Shanken News Daily reported that the portfolio total covers Treasury’s major brands above $10 and showed a 5.4% drop for the latest 52-week period. The publication also cited Impact Databank figures showing 2025 U.S. volumes for those key brands at a combined 3.584 million 9-liter cases on a depletion basis, although that measure is separate from the Circana retail trend.

Treasury is one of the world’s larger wine producers and is based in Melbourne. The company reported fiscal-year sales of A$2.56 billion through June, down 11.2% from the prior year. In U.S. dollar terms, Shanken News Daily put that at about $1.81 billion. The company owns a broad portfolio that spans Australia, California, New Zealand, and Europe.

Fischer told investors that the U.S. market has improved in recent months as part of the company’s broader Ascent turnaround program. He said Treasury expects earnings before interest and tax, before self-generating and significant items, in fiscal 2027 to be at least in line with fiscal 2026. He said momentum in what the company calls its power brands and regional hero labels should help offset ongoing efforts to improve channel health.

Treasury has also been reviewing its U.S. business structure. Fischer said the company is trying to address what he described as structural misalignment in its supply chain. That work includes reducing grower intake, fallowing vineyards, cutting winemaking capacity, and selling surplus assets.

The U.S. remains a key market for Treasury, but it has also been a difficult one. Fischer noted the collapse of Republic National Distributing Co., formerly Treasury’s largest U.S. distributor, as one of the unexpected challenges facing the company. Distribution disruption has added to broader pressure in the wine market, where many producers have been dealing with softer demand, changes in consumer behavior, and continued inventory adjustments.

Even so, Treasury says it still sees room for growth in wine, especially at the higher end of the market. Fischer said luxury wine remains attractive because some consumers are drinking less but choosing more expensive bottles when they do buy. He also pointed to lighter and more refreshing wine styles as an area where Treasury believes it can compete.

The retail data suggest that this strategy is producing gains for some labels but has not yet lifted the whole group in measured U.S. channels. Brands such as Daou, Frank Family, and Matua are moving in the right direction, according to Circana’s figures, but the total portfolio above $10 remains in contraction because the losses at larger labels, especially 19 Crimes, are still outweighing the advances elsewhere.

That distinction matters for investors and retailers because Treasury’s public comments about improvement are based largely on depletion trends in its luxury portfolio, while the retail data measure consumer purchases in tracked outlets across a full 52-week period. Both can be true at the same time: shipments from distributors may be improving in part of the business, while retail volume across a wider set of major brands remains below last year’s level.

The Circana figures also leave some gaps. Shanken News Daily did not provide the absolute retail volume for the comparable prior-year period in liters or cases for the 52 weeks ended Oct. 4, so the exact physical size of the retail-volume loss cannot be calculated from the published data alone. Even so, the 5.4% decline shows that Treasury’s recovery message in the U.S. is, for now, only partial when measured at the cash register.