SipSource data shows U.S. wine volumes fell 8% over the past year

New SipSource data released on Thursday, October 29, showed that wine remained under heavier pressure than spirits in the United States, even as Irish whiskey, tequila and liqueurs posted growth and bars and restaurants showed signs of improvement.

The figures, presented during a holiday-season forecasting webinar by the Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America’s SipSource, pointed to a mixed drinks market heading into the final months of the year. Sales remained down in both on-premise and off-premise channels, but the pace of decline eased in some areas, especially for bars and restaurants.

Over the three months ending in September, Irish whiskey depletion volume rose 6.6%, tequila increased 2.5% and liqueurs were up 1.4%, according to SipSource. The same three-month period showed core spirits, which exclude spirits-based ready-to-drink products in SipSource’s analysis, down 2.5% in depletion volume. That was still a decline, but it marked an improvement from the 12-month trend, which showed core spirits volumes down 4.1%.

Wine continued to lag. SipSource said wine volumes fell 8% over the past year, with little recent improvement. In the three months ending in September, wine depletions were down 6.7%.

Danny Brager, a SipSource analyst, said the latest numbers suggested some parts of the market were beginning to steady after a weaker period, but that consumer caution remained a major constraint.

“The holidays will be good for some parts of the business and harder for others,” Brager said during the webinar, according to the published report. “We’re seeing real signs of stabilization, and the soft comparisons of a year ago should work in our favor this quarter. But consumers are being far more selective with their spending, and until economic conditions improve, we don’t expect that to change.”

Brager said the growth inside spirits was concentrated in a relatively small group of categories rather than spread across the market. He pointed to tequila, cordial and Irish whiskey depletions as recent areas of strength, while also noting that depletion gains do not automatically mean equivalent gains in consumer takeaway.

“We hope those translate into actual consumer uptake, but that was an encouraging sign for us,” he said.

The trade picture was also uneven. SipSource said both on-premise and off-premise sales were still declining, but restaurants and bars were performing better than retail outlets. Over the past year, on-premise wine and spirits revenues fell 2.5%, compared with a 5.6% decline for retailers.

Brager described off-premise as the main drag on the market, although he said even that channel had improved over the most recent three-month stretch. He also said suppliers and distributors were still facing pressure on points of distribution and on account counts, underscoring that the market had not fully turned.

The data may shape decisions well beyond the webinar. For producers, distributors and retailers preparing for the holiday selling season, the figures offer a national read on where demand appears weakest and where inventory may need to be adjusted more carefully. Categories showing early stabilization, particularly some spirits segments and the on-premise channel, could draw closer attention as companies set orders and manage year-end stock.

Wine analysts said the category’s biggest weakness remained at lower price points, where much of the market’s volume sits. Dale Stratton, another SipSource analyst, said value wines were still posting significant declines, creating a drag on the broader category even as a few segments held up better.

“The value-priced wines were losing so much and they’re still big,” Stratton said. “So much of the volume is done at those lower price points, and it is showing significant negative trends.”

Even so, wine was not uniformly weak. Stratton said sparkling wines, including Champagne and Prosecco, continued to perform better than the category overall. He also identified Sauvignon Blanc as a dependable growth area that was still attracting consumers.

“Champagne, Prosecco, and the sparkling category in general is doing better,” Stratton said. “And then there’s Sauvignon Blanc. Sauvignon Blanc has really shown itself to be a very good dependable varietal that is showing growth.”

The latest SipSource snapshot suggests the U.S. beverage alcohol market is still contracting overall, but not at the same rate across categories or channels. Wine remains under more sustained pressure, core spirits are declining less sharply than before, and some individual segments are still expanding. At the same time, the gap between bars and restaurants and off-premise retail has become more noticeable as the industry moves into a critical holiday period.