Italy’s wine trade groups will skip the early harvest forecast this year

Italy’s main wine trade groups said they will not publish the country’s usual early harvest forecast this year, choosing instead to release final production data only after the 2026 grape harvest is complete.

Assoenologi, the association of Italian oenologists, and Unione Italiana Vini, known as UIV, said the decision reflects a push for more reliable information in a season marked by increasingly unstable weather. In a joint statement issued Wednesday, the groups said they would not hold the traditional pre-harvest forecast conference normally organized with Ismea, the public agricultural market institute.

The organizations said early estimates made before picking ends can change sharply when weather conditions shift during the harvest. They said they now consider it more useful to present final figures at the end of the campaign, when they can offer what they described as a complete and dependable picture of production volumes, grape quality and the main characteristics of the vintage.

The move comes as harvesting has already begun in parts of Italy. Producers in Sicily started picking in recent days, and growers in Oltrepò Pavese have also begun bringing in fruit. Harvesting is set to start Thursday in Franciacorta, one of Italy’s best-known sparkling wine regions. In Sicily, industry groups have said the harvest could stretch for nearly 100 days, underscoring how uneven timing has become across the country.

Assoenologi and UIV also said they hope authorities will move up the official grape harvest declaration to mid-November next year so that final data can be compiled sooner. They did not provide a timetable for when their post-harvest analysis will be released beyond saying it would come after the end of the 2026 harvest.

The decision aligns Italy more closely with France, where wine industry representatives have also pushed back against publishing very early crop forecasts in August. Across Europe, growers have faced repeated swings between heat, drought and other extreme weather events that can alter yields late in the season.

In Italy, trade groups said those conditions have made advance estimates especially difficult this year. Coldiretti, the large farmers’ organization, said separately that it is unusually hard to make quantitative predictions for a harvest spread over nearly five months. It described the season as a major winemaking challenge for producers, citing record temperatures and drought that are increasing sugar concentration in grapes.

Coldiretti added that, for now, the threat from downy mildew appears to have eased and that quality is shaping up as excellent in many areas. That assessment remains preliminary because picking has only just started in several regions and will continue deep into the fall.

The choice to avoid early volume forecasts also reflects market concerns beyond agronomy. In recent years, initial harvest estimates in Italy have sometimes been revised significantly after weather changed during picking. By waiting for final numbers, producer groups appear to be trying to reduce room for speculation in grape prices and bulk wine markets based on incomplete or inaccurate data.

That matters across the beverage sector because Italy is one of the world’s largest wine producers, and even small shifts in expectations can influence contracts, pricing and supply planning for wineries, bottlers, exporters and distributors. For sparkling wine producers in regions such as Franciacorta, where harvest timing is closely watched, uncertainty around crop size can also affect purchasing decisions and inventory strategies.

For now, Italian growers and buyers will have to navigate the season without an official national forecast. The first broad assessment from leading trade bodies is expected only once harvesting ends and final figures on volume and quality can be verified.