Global farm output will rise 13% by 2035, FAO and OECD say

Global farm and fish production is expected to rise 13% by 2035, with most of that growth coming from Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, according to the new Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035 released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

The report says the increase would come mainly from higher productivity and more intensive production under stable conditions. It also projects a 9% rise in average global gross farm income per worker over the next decade, helped by those output gains and by agricultural prices that are expected to remain broadly stable in real terms.

At the same time, FAO and OECD warn that expanding cropland and livestock herds would raise greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture by 6.5%. The report attributes 77% of that increase to livestock expansion and 23% to synthetic fertilizers. The expected shift is tied in part to changing diets in lower-middle-income countries, where consumers are likely to buy more animal products as incomes improve. In poorer countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, food insecurity and weak nutrition are expected to remain more severe than in other regions.

The outlook points to a widening gap in consumption patterns across the world. In richer countries, excessive food consumption is expected to persist. In Southeast Asia, rising population and stronger per capita demand are projected to make the region responsible for 39% of global consumption growth by 2035.

FAO and OECD said international prices for agricultural commodities should stay near current levels or below them over the next decade in real terms. The forecast is based on continued productivity gains and typical weather patterns that would help reduce marginal production costs for most commodities. But the agencies also stressed that stable long-term trends do not rule out sharp swings. They noted that past price spikes have followed oil shocks, financial crises, food crises, the pandemic and geopolitical conflicts, including the conflict in the Middle East in 2026.

The report expects trade between surplus and deficit regions to keep growing. Latin America is projected to remain the world’s leading net agricultural exporter, while North America, Europe and Central Asia continue supplying international markets. Import demand is expected to rise in sub-Saharan Africa, the Near East and North Africa, and South and Southeast Asia as populations grow, incomes rise and diets change.

That matters for beverage producers as well as food companies because stable supplies of grains, sugar crops and other farm inputs can shape costs for brewers, distillers and wine producers. At the same time, any disruption in energy markets, fertilizer use or trade flows could still feed through into ingredient prices and margins across drinks categories.

The report says average global agricultural labor productivity, measured as real gross farm income per worker, is projected at $3,800 per worker over the coming decade. But that figure hides wide regional differences. In high-income countries, average agricultural labor productivity was estimated at just over $21,100 in 2023-2025 and is forecast to reach $22,155 by 2035. The highest output per farm worker remains concentrated in North America, Western Europe and Oceania, where farms tend to operate on large areas with relatively little labor and high levels of mechanization.

FAO and OECD said many middle-income countries in Latin America, Eastern Europe and parts of East and Central Asia are moving away from labor-intensive farming toward more market-oriented and capital-intensive systems. Over the forecast period, greater mechanization is expected to improve land-use intensity and make planting and harvesting more efficient. The agencies said those gains could also support rural incomes if governments improve access to inputs, infrastructure and marketing services while reducing market distortions.

Among major commodities, global cereal production is projected to rise steadily to a record 3.22 billion metric tons by 2035. Most of that growth is expected to come from yield gains of 0.9% a year, while cereal acreage expands only 0.1% annually, less than half the pace seen in the previous decade. About 40% of cereals will go directly to human consumption and 34% to animal feed. Wheat and rice are expected to remain primarily food crops, while corn will continue to be used mainly as feed grain.

For drinks makers, cereal trends are especially relevant because barley, corn and wheat are central raw materials for beer and spirits production. A market with broadly stable grain prices could ease some cost pressure if forecasts hold, though competition from feed demand and biofuels may still affect availability in some regions.

Global biofuel demand is projected to grow 1.4% a year over the next decade, driven mainly by Brazil, India and Indonesia. Growth in most high-income countries is expected to slow as policy incentives weaken and electric vehicle adoption accelerates.

Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to account for about 16% of the increase in global agricultural production value by 2035, up from 11% in the previous decade. Even so, much of the region is expected to remain vulnerable to food insecurity and external shocks. The Asia-Pacific region is projected to generate 58% of global agricultural production growth by 2035, with India alone contributing 26% of that increase. Much of that expansion is expected to come from rapid growth in dairy herds and higher productivity per animal.

In high-income countries, meat consumption growth is expected to slow sharply as consumers shift from beef toward poultry because of high prices, health concerns and environmental pressure. Global fisheries and aquaculture production is projected to rise 11% by 2035. Aquaculture will continue driving that growth and is expected to account for 56% of total fish production, up from 53% now. Asia is likely to remain the main engine of both supply and demand for fish products even as expansion slows in China, the world’s largest aquaculture producer.

The report repeatedly warns that these projections depend on relative stability. If shocks continue at the pace seen in recent years, FAO and OECD estimate there is a 25% chance that farm incomes in 2035 will be lower than they are today. Short-term risks are also significant. If the average 33% increase in energy prices recorded in the first half of 2026 continues through the second half of the year, global cereal production would fall 0.9% in 2027, according to the report. In low-income countries, the decline would be steeper at 1.7%.

That kind of pressure would hit poorer households hardest through lower incomes and higher food prices, forcing many consumers toward cheaper foods while worsening food security. Wealthier countries are considered better able to absorb those shocks.

Mathias Cormann, the OECD secretary general, said agro-food systems are under strain and farmers are on the front line of rising energy and fertilizer costs. Their resilience, he said, is essential for food security and depends on better support against shocks, steady investment in productivity and open global markets.

Qu Dongyu, FAO’s director general, said stronger resilience means preparing for future disruptions rather than only surviving recent ones. He called for investment in diversified trade corridors, regional reserves of key agricultural inputs, resilient infrastructure and a more diversified energy mix across agro-food systems so temporary disruptions do not become food security crises.

FAO and OECD said multilateral cooperation, open markets and rules-based agricultural trade remain central to improving global food security, supporting more varied diets and helping stabilize farm incomes over time.