WSWA Forecast Sees U.S. Spirits Sales Declining Through 2027

The Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America said on Wednesday that its latest SipSource forecast points to another difficult stretch for the U.S. spirits market, with declines expected to continue through 2027 even as conditions show signs of gradual stabilization.

The trade group’s outlook, released through PRNewswire, projects a modest improvement in the total core spirits market from a rolling 12-month depletion trend of -4.19% in the first quarter of 2026 to -3.91% by the fourth quarter of 2026 and -3.68% by the second quarter of 2027. In SipSource data, core spirits excludes spirits-based ready-to-drink products.

The forecast covers the period from the second quarter of 2026 through the second quarter of 2027 and draws on what WSWA described as a broad depletion dataset that includes sales information from more than 20 major wholesalers, control state data and several macroeconomic indicators. The projections track rolling 12-month growth rates in 9-liter case depletions across seven major categories: brandy and Cognac, rum, tequila and agave, vodka, U.S. whiskey, Irish whiskey and Scotch whisky.

Francis Creighton, WSWA’s president and chief executive, said the market remains under pressure but may be nearing a more stable phase. He said the latest numbers suggest conditions could begin to settle over the coming year, though still in negative territory, and that companies will need disciplined planning and targeted consumer engagement as they manage through weaker demand.

The report suggests tequila and agave spirits, one of the industry’s most closely watched segments in recent years, are likely to stabilize after a sharp slowdown earlier in 2026. WSWA said performance in mid-tier price bands is expected to help offset broader weakness in that category. Even so, the group does not expect tequila and agave to return to positive growth during the forecast period.

Vodka is projected to perform better than the broader spirits market, according to the forecast, while rum, Irish whiskey and brandy/Cognac are expected to lag overall core spirits trends. Despite those relative differences, all four categories are still expected to remain in negative growth territory through 2026 and into early 2027.

For whiskey, the outlook is somewhat firmer. WSWA said U.S. whiskey and Scotch should improve gradually as the market moves toward 2027. That recovery, if it develops as projected, is expected to be led by what the group called “affordable luxury” price tiers, suggesting consumers may continue to trade carefully while still spending selectively on higher-value bottles.

The forecast matters beyond spirits producers alone because depletion trends at the wholesale level often shape production schedules, distributor strategy, pricing decisions and promotional spending across the beverage business. For suppliers and distributors of distilled spirits, weaker but stabilizing volumes can affect margin planning and inventory management. It may also influence how companies divide attention between premium labels, mid-priced offerings and entry-level brands as they try to match shifting consumer demand.

WSWA said SipSource has posted more than 90% accuracy across published forecasts over the past 24 months. It added that its most recent forecast reached 99.8% accuracy for all core spirits when comparing a third-quarter 2025 projection with actual first-quarter 2026 depletion results.

SipSource is used as a market intelligence tool for suppliers, distributors and other industry participants seeking category-level and price-tier data. WSWA said the platform covers 70% of wholesale volume across all 50 states through data sourced directly from its members. The association represents the wholesale tier of the wine and spirits business and says its member companies distribute more than 80% of all wine and spirits sold in the United States.

The new outlook arrives at a time when beverage companies across categories are watching consumer spending closely as inflation pressures, changing drinking habits and competition from alternative products continue to weigh on alcohol sales. In that setting, even a slower pace of decline can offer an important signal for commercial planning heading into late 2026 and early 2027.