Italian Wine Exports Are Set to Gain Value Through 2029

Italian wine exports are expected to keep gaining value through 2029, with the industry betting on premium bottles, sparkling wines and a stronger push into markets that are still expanding, according to an analysis released by the Italian Wine Union and Vinitaly.

The outlook points to average annual growth of 3.5% in export value over the next three years, even as volumes remain under pressure in several mature markets. The strategy is clear: sell less commodity wine and more higher-priced labels, especially in countries where consumers are moving up the quality ladder.

In the United States, one of Italy’s most important markets, Italian wine is moving against the broader slowdown in the premium segment. While premium wine sales are weakening overall, Italian products are projected to rise 4%, helped mainly by sparkling wines, with Prosecco leading the way. The category remains one of Italy’s strongest assets abroad because it combines recognizable branding with a price point that still leaves room for growth.

Britain presents a different challenge. There, the focus is on still wines, especially reds and rosés from regions such as Tuscany, Piedmont, Puglia and Abruzzo. The forecast calls for 3% growth as Italian producers try to deepen their presence in a market where consumers remain selective but continue to show interest in established wine regions and familiar styles.

Japan stands out as the most promising destination in the analysis. The market is moving beyond premium wines and toward luxury products, with that segment expected to reach a 20% share. For Italian exporters, Japan offers room to raise prices and build prestige, especially for brands that can position themselves at the top end of the market.

China is showing a more mature pattern. Volumes are falling, but value is rising. By 2029, premium wines in China are expected to grow 10%, and Italy is projected to capture part of that expansion with a 2.5% increase, supported by sparkling wines and Moscato d’Asti. South Korea shows similar dynamics, though Italian wine still has limited penetration there, accounting for only 6% of the premium market.

In Latin America, Mexico and Brazil are emerging as new routes for growth. In Mexico, red wines are advancing faster than the market average, with projected growth of 15%. In Brazil, lower tariffs are helping imported wines compete more effectively against older established labels and opening space for more sought-after bottles.

The analysis also highlights newer markets in Southeast Asia and South Asia, including Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines and India. These countries remain small compared with Europe or North America, but they are growing quickly. India stands out with projected growth of 76%, driven by younger consumers, cocktail culture and a rising interest in wine itself. Sparkling wine is expected to lead demand there too, though white and red still wines also have room to expand.

For Italian producers, the message from the forecast is that future export growth will depend less on selling more bottles and more on selling better ones, in markets where consumers are willing to pay for origin, style and brand recognition.