US Whisky Market Forecasts Moderate Growth as Premiumization Drives Value

The United States whisky market is expected to see steady growth over the next decade, according to a recent report by IndexBox. In 2024, Americans consumed 281 million liters of whisky, with the market valued at $2.6 billion. The report projects that by 2035, consumption will reach 310 million liters, representing an average annual growth rate of 0.9%. Market value is forecast to grow faster, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.6%, potentially reaching $3.4 billion by 2035.

Despite the increase in domestic production, which rose by 9.5% in 2024 to 290 million liters, U.S. output remains well below its peak of 598 million liters recorded in 2013. The country continues to be a net importer of whisky, bringing in 191 million liters in 2024, mainly from the United Kingdom, Canada, and Ireland. At the same time, U.S. exports reached 200 million liters, with Spain, Japan, and Brazil among the top destinations.

The value of imports stood at $1.8 billion in 2024, with the UK accounting for $1.4 billion or about three-quarters of total import value. Canada and Ireland followed as significant suppliers but at much lower price points per liter compared to the UK. The average import price was $9.6 per liter in 2024, with UK whisky commanding the highest price at $18 per liter and Canadian whisky among the lowest at $2.4 per liter.

On the export side, U.S. whisky shipments increased by 13% in volume compared to the previous year, totaling $1.5 billion in value for 2024. The Netherlands, Germany, and Australia were leading markets by value, while Spain, Japan, and Brazil were top destinations by volume. Notably, Brazil showed strong growth as an export market for U.S. whisky over the past decade.

The report notes that while both imports and exports have fluctuated over recent years, overall trade activity remains robust. Import volumes have declined from their peak of 271 million liters in 2014 but remain substantial. Export volumes are also below their historical high of 530 million liters in 2013 but have shown signs of recovery since then.

Domestic consumption has remained relatively flat since a peak earlier in the decade but is expected to rise gradually through 2035 as consumer interest grows and new products enter the market. The report attributes projected market value growth not only to higher volumes but also to premiumization trends and rising prices for imported and domestic whiskies.

The United States whisky sector continues to be shaped by international trade dynamics and shifting consumer preferences. While domestic production is recovering from previous declines, imports—especially from established producers like the UK—remain central to meeting demand. Exports are also an important part of the industry’s outlook as American whisky brands expand their presence abroad.

IndexBox’s analysis draws on trade data and market trends through 2024 and provides forecasts based on current patterns in production, consumption, pricing, and international trade relationships. The findings suggest that while growth will be moderate in terms of volume, rising values reflect both changing tastes and ongoing demand for premium spirits in the United States and overseas markets.