France raises its 2026 wine harvest forecast to 36.7 million hectoliters

France raised its forecast for the 2026 wine harvest on Friday, November 6, after better-than-expected yields in several key regions, a revision that now puts national production slightly above the 2025 crop instead of below it.

Agreste, the statistical service of the Agriculture Ministry, estimated 2026 production at 36.7 million hectoliters as of November 1, up from 34.9 million hectoliters in its October 1 estimate. The increase of 1.8 million hectoliters represents a 5.2% upward revision from the earlier forecast. A hectoliter equals 100 liters.

The change is significant because it reverses the year-over-year comparison at the national level. In October, the ministry’s estimate placed the 2026 harvest 2% below 2025. The new estimate puts it 3% above 2025. Even after the revision, however, the harvest is still expected to remain 10% below the 2021-2025 average, an improvement from the 14% shortfall projected a month earlier.

The ministry said the higher forecast was driven mainly by stronger yields than previously expected in Languedoc-Roussillon in southern France and in Charentes in western France. Those two areas together account for about half of French wine production. Estimates also improved in Champagne and in the southeast.

The data point to a sharp regional divide. In Languedoc-Roussillon, Agreste now expects production to be 25% above the weak 2025 harvest, compared with a 20% increase projected in October. Against the 2021-2025 average, the region is now seen 6% above normal, versus 2% in the earlier estimate. The revision suggests that late-season conditions in the south helped limit the damage from dry weather and heat.

That improvement in the south has not lifted the whole country back to recent average levels, and it has not offset heavy weakness in parts of northern France. Champagne’s forecast was revised higher from October, but output there is still expected to be 38% below 2025. Agreste said frost, hail, drought and summer heat hurt the region. In Burgundy-Beaujolais, production is forecast to fall 22% from 2025, while the Loire Valley is expected to decline 7%. Alsace is also projected below last year’s level.

Other regions are expected to post gains from the low base of 2025. Bordeaux output is forecast to rise 10% from 2025, though it would still remain 11% below the five-year average. Production in the southwest is expected to increase 15% from 2025, and the southeast is projected to rise 7%, according to the ministry’s estimates.

Agreste said the 2026 harvest was shaped not only by weather but also by a smaller vineyard area. France has been reducing vine acreage under state-backed uprooting plans aimed at addressing oversupply and supporting prices in a wine market under pressure from weaker demand and changing consumption. The ministry has said the current program covers 27,000 hectares and is expected to reduce total vineyard area to about 740,000 hectares, down from close to 800,000 hectares five years earlier.

The latest figures are harvest estimates, not final declarations and not a measure of the volume that will eventually be available for sale. In Champagne in particular, the number of bottles that reach the market depends on decisions by the region’s industry bodies as well as production levels and demand.

Still, the November revision marks an important shift in the outlook for France, the world’s second-largest wine producer after Italy. A month ago, the government expected the 2026 harvest to come in below the already weak 2025 crop. It now expects a modest increase over that level, even though national production remains well below the recent five-year norm and large parts of the country, especially Champagne and other northern vineyards, continue to face severe losses.