Democrats won the House and Senate, reshaping policy for small U.S. brewers

The 2026 midterm elections are set to reshape the policy debate for small U.S. brewers after Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate, according to an analysis published Wednesday, November 4, by the Brewers Association.

The trade group said the result will create divided government for the final two years of President Donald Trump’s second term and could change how Congress handles several issues that matter to independent breweries, including aluminum tariffs, federal excise tax procedures and regulation of intoxicating hemp-derived products.

The Brewers Association said the full effect of the election will take time to emerge, especially because the 120th Congress does not convene until January 2027. Before then, lawmakers are expected to return to Washington for a lame-duck session, with federal spending and hemp policy among the issues that could still receive attention before the current Congress ends.

In its assessment, the group said Democratic control of both chambers is likely to bring heavier congressional oversight of the Trump administration, particularly on trade policy and its effect on U.S. businesses. For craft brewers, that could open a path to press lawmakers on the cost of tariffs on imported aluminum and other materials used in production and packaging.

That debate could matter well beyond craft beer. Aluminum costs affect can pricing across the beverage business, and any change in federal tariff policy could influence expenses for beer, wine, spirits and nonalcoholic drink producers that rely on metal packaging. The same is true for tax and regulatory decisions that can shift operating costs and competition among beverage categories.

The Brewers Association also said the next Congress could revisit federal rules for intoxicating hemp-derived products, including possible standards on consumer safety, labeling and age restrictions. That issue has become more important for the broader drinks market as hemp-based beverages expand and as brewers, distillers and other producers watch for a clearer federal framework.

At the same time, the trade group said some proposals with bipartisan appeal could still move forward in the new Congress. It pointed to legislation and policy ideas aimed at lowering business costs, including the Brews to Barns Act, efforts to modernize federal excise tax reporting requirements and measures to increase competition in credit card processing.

For small breweries, excise tax administration is a practical issue as much as a political one. Any modernization of reporting rules could reduce compliance burdens for operators that often run with limited staff. Changes in payment processing competition could also affect taprooms and other direct-to-consumer sales channels, where transaction fees can cut into margins.

The election is also expected to bring major turnover in the congressional caucuses that have traditionally backed small brewers. The Brewers Association said that of the 147 members identified on the House Small Brewers Caucus roster, at least 33 will not return to their current House seats next year. In the Senate, the bipartisan small brewers caucus is also losing members, with three senators retiring and at least one incumbent defeated.

That turnover means the industry will have to rebuild relationships even if many longtime allies remain on Capitol Hill. The association said incoming lawmakers may be less familiar with the role local breweries play as employers, manufacturers and community businesses, making direct outreach more important in the opening months of the new Congress.

The group said its annual Hill Climb event will take on added weight as brewers seek meetings with members of Congress and staff. It is also urging brewery owners to invite newly elected representatives to visit their facilities, meet employees and hear directly about operating pressures. Those pressures include higher packaging costs, federal compliance demands and competition from emerging beverage categories.

While the Brewers Association framed the election as a moment of uncertainty, it also described a potential opening for the industry to influence the policy agenda early. Leadership changes, committee assignments and legislative priorities are expected to alter how Congress approaches business issues tied to brewing, and the association said brewers should prepare for both small and significant shifts in Washington.

The group did not predict exact legislative outcomes. Instead, it said the direction of policy will depend on how the new majorities organize, what survives the lame-duck session and how lawmakers balance oversight, trade and business legislation once the new Congress begins work in January 2027.

For beverage producers, the stakes are concrete. Decisions on tariffs could affect packaging costs, changes in tax reporting could alter administrative burdens, and federal rules for hemp-derived drinks could redefine the competitive landscape between traditional alcohol producers and newer products. With Congress changing hands, those questions are now moving closer to the center of the industry’s agenda in Washington.