Lower-Priced Wine Volumes Fell 21.3% Globally Since 2017, Analysis Finds

The sharpest losses in the global wine business are falling on lower-priced bottles, while premium wine has largely held its ground, according to an analysis published Thursday by Wine Meridian based on presentations from Wine Australia’s Global Market Update 2026.

The analysis, which draws on IWSR data presented in Adelaide by Wine Australia executives Peter Bailey and Paul Turale, says the world’s commercial and value wine segment fell from about 2.35 billion nine-liter cases in 2017 to about 1.85 billion in 2025. That is a drop of roughly 500 million cases, or 21.3%. Over the same period, premium and higher-priced wine remained near 400 million cases, showing little volume growth but no comparable collapse.

The figures suggest the industry’s problem is not a uniform retreat from wine, but a concentrated decline in the biggest, cheapest part of the market. Wine Meridian said that distinction matters because average value can rise even as mass-market sales weaken, masking how uneven the downturn has become across price bands.

The same pattern appears in consumption by color. According to the analysis, red and rosé wine together fell from about 1.59 billion cases in 2017 to about 1.14 billion in 2025, a decline of about 450 million cases, or 28.3%. White wine dropped from about 850 million cases to about 730 million, down by roughly 120 million cases, or 14.1%. That means red and rosé have been losing volume at about twice the rate of white wine.

The latest year in the dataset also showed wine underperforming the broader alcohol market. Between 2024 and 2025, still wine consumption fell by 4.5% and sparkling wine declined by 2.4%, according to the presentations cited by Wine Meridian. Total alcoholic beverages were down 2% over the same period. Ready-to-drink beverages rose 2.5%, and no-alcohol drinks increased 8%.

Those numbers point to a wider shift in drinking habits, with consumers moving away from some traditional wine occasions and toward lighter, more flexible or non-alcoholic alternatives. Wine Meridian argued that the damage is especially severe for large-volume, lower-priced wine and for heavier reliance on red wine styles.

The Wine Australia event itself was framed around how producers should respond to falling volumes, changing consumer behavior and selective pockets of demand. On its website, Wine Australia described the Adelaide gathering as a forum for representatives from across the Australian grape and wine sector to examine market trends, consumer shifts and growth opportunities affecting the future of Australian wine.

In the material reviewed by Wine Meridian, Bailey presented a global market picture of declining wine volumes and rising average value per liter, while Turale focused on how those changes affect strategy. The central point, according to the Italian publication, was that value growth in wine should not be read as a broad benefit shared by every producer or style. Instead, it appears to be concentrated in parts of the market that remain relevant to current consumer preferences.

Wine Meridian said this selective resilience has implications far beyond Australia, especially for countries and regions with heavy exposure to bulk, commercial or lower-priced wine. If premium wine is stable while the lower end is shrinking, producers that depend on volume sales may face a more structural problem than a normal cyclical slowdown.

The analysis also linked the volume losses to changes in what consumers want to drink. Red wine’s steeper decline compared with white wine suggests that the market is not just buying less wine overall, but changing which kinds of wine it prefers. That could affect planting, production, branding and export strategies in countries where red wine and entry-level categories remain central to supply.

At the same time, the underlying data require caution. Wine Meridian said the absolute totals cited in its article are approximate readings taken from charts shown in the Wine Australia presentations, not a new primary statistical release published Thursday. The publication also noted that the material was based on IWSR analysis presented by Wine Australia, meaning the figures should be treated as directional estimates rather than final official counts.

Even with that caveat, the broad trend is clear in both sources: wine is losing volume faster than the total alcoholic drinks market, and the losses are concentrated in mainstream price tiers. Premium wine, by contrast, is not expanding much in volume, but it is proving more resilient.

That distinction is likely to shape how producers and trade groups respond in the next few years. A market that is getting smaller in liters but more selective in what it rewards does not create the same pressure everywhere. It puts the greatest strain on businesses built around inexpensive, high-volume wine and on categories, especially reds and rosés, where demand has fallen the most.