2026-06-16
Global alcohol consumption is expected to keep falling through 2031 before stabilizing and returning close to 2025 levels by 2035, according to a new long-range forecast from IWSR, the beverage alcohol research firm. The outlook points to a market that will look very different over the next decade, with weaker demand in many mature economies, stronger growth in several emerging markets and continued pressure on wine volumes.
IWSR said total global beverage alcohol volume in 2035 is projected to be 1% lower than in 2025. The firm expects the path to that result to include several years of decline followed by a gradual recovery. It said the stabilization would be driven mainly by a rebalancing of where drinking takes place around the world and by growth in the global population of legal drinking age consumers.
The forecast comes as drinks companies are already dealing with softer demand after the post-pandemic rebound faded. Reuters reported that major producers across beer, wine and spirits have seen sales contract since 2023, while investors have marked down valuations. Companies have pointed to higher living costs, changing consumer habits and health concerns as factors weighing on demand. Reuters also noted that the spread of weight-loss drugs could affect drinking rates for some consumers.
Wine faces the sharpest projected decline among the main traditional categories. IWSR forecasts that wine volume sales will fall 14% between 2025 and 2035. Spirits are expected to decline 2% over the same period, while beer is projected to slip 1%. Ready-to-drink beverages, or RTDs, are the main exception, with volumes expected to rise 17%.
That outlook matters across the beverage business because a sustained drop in wine volumes could shape production plans, inventories, pricing and commercial strategy for producers, distributors and retailers. If demand continues to weaken as forecast, companies may need to adjust stock levels and rethink where they invest, especially in markets where consumption is shrinking.
IWSR said annual per capita consumption of pure alcohol is expected to fall by half a liter by 2035, even as the global drinking age population rises 9%. Reuters described that decline as roughly equal to two bottles of spirits or a case of wine less per person each year by the end of the forecast period.
The broad global figure masks a sharper divide between established and emerging markets. By 2035, major mature markets are expected to post declines in servings consumed, while several developing markets are set for strong gains. Reuters reported that alcohol servings in China and the United States, the world’s two largest drinking markets today, are forecast to fall by more than 18% over the next decade. Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom are also expected to record notable declines.
At the same time, India is projected to expand rapidly. Using IWSR’s servings measure, India is expected to overtake the United States by 2032 and become the world’s second-largest beverage alcohol market behind China. Reuters said India’s alcohol servings are forecast to rise 38% over the next 10 years. Other markets expected to grow include Mexico at 13%, Vietnam at 15% and Colombia at 26%.
Marten Lodewijks, president and managing director of IWSR, said in comments released with the forecast that stabilization in global beverage alcohol volumes would be positive for the industry but would not remove deeper challenges. He said producers would need to respond both to changing tastes in established markets and to shifts in where consumption is happening.
The research firm also released confirmed data for 2025 that show those changes are already underway. Global beverage alcohol volume fell 2% from 2024 to 2025, according to IWSR. Across the 160 markets it analyzed, 66 posted an increase in beverage alcohol servings consumed, 83 recorded declines and 12 were flat year over year.
Among individual countries, IWSR said India posted a 4% rise in servings sold in 2025 compared with the previous year. Colombia also rose 4%, while South Africa increased 1%. Those gains stood out against a broader backdrop of contraction.
Some categories also outperformed despite overall weakness. IWSR highlighted RTD cocktails, which grew 14% in 2025, no-alcohol beer at 8%, stout at 4% and Indian whiskey at 4%. The figures suggest that even as total consumption falls, consumers are still shifting spending toward specific formats and styles that better match current preferences.
For producers of wine, beer and spirits, the forecast suggests that future growth may depend less on broad-based increases in drinking and more on category mix, premium positioning, low- and no-alcohol innovation and exposure to faster-growing countries. The pressure appears most acute for wine, which is facing both near-term weakness and a longer-term decline in projected volume.
The report also underlines how much geography may matter over the next decade. Mature markets still account for a large share of global sales value, but their volumes are under pressure. Emerging markets are expected to contribute more of the industry’s growth in servings consumed, changing where companies focus marketing, distribution and investment.
For tourism-linked beverage businesses such as bars, hotels, restaurants and airport retail operators, those shifts could also influence product assortments and purchasing decisions. A market with slower per capita drinking but stronger demand for RTDs, no-alcohol options and locally relevant spirits may require a different approach than one built around steady growth in traditional wine or mainstream beer consumption.
IWSR’s forecast does not point to a collapse in global drinking volumes. Instead, it describes a long adjustment period in which total consumption remains under pressure for several years before leveling off. But within that relatively stable headline number lies a significant reshaping of demand by category and country, with wine losing ground fastest among major segments and India emerging as one of the industry’s central growth engines.