Germany Expects 8.0 Million Hectoliters of Wine Must in 2026

Germany’s wine producers expect to harvest 8.0 million hectoliters of wine must in 2026, according to a second national estimate released Tuesday by the Federal Statistical Office, or Destatis, in Wiesbaden.

The estimate points to a partial recovery from last year, but not a return to recent average levels. Destatis said the expected volume is 0.3 million hectoliters higher than the 7.7 million recorded in 2025, an increase of 5%. At the same time, it is 0.3 million hectoliters, or 4%, below the average for 2020 through 2025.

The figures are based on the second harvest estimate for Sept. 20 and remain provisional because the full grape harvest had not yet been completed. Destatis said the outlook draws on reports from about 400 voluntary respondents who provided expected yields for their vineyards. The agency said the estimate could still change as the season develops, depending on weather, local storms, plant diseases and pests.

Destatis said the 2026 wine year has so far been marked by drought and heat. A lack of water has left grape berries smaller, reducing the expected volume of the harvest. The agency added that the higher concentration of grape contents caused by dry conditions could support good quality. Apart from localized hail events, it said large-scale damage has so far not been reported.

More than half of Germany’s expected production again comes from its two largest wine-growing regions, Rheinhessen and the Palatinate. Rheinhessen is expected to produce 2.4 million hectoliters and the Palatinate 2.1 million hectoliters, together accounting for 56% of the national total. Baden is expected to contribute 1.2 million hectoliters and Württemberg 772,000 hectoliters, which together represent another 24%.

Destatis said seven wine regions are expected to post larger harvests than a year earlier. The biggest absolute gains are forecast in the Palatinate, where output is seen rising by 214,000 hectoliters, or 11%, in Baden, up 171,000 hectoliters, or 17%, and in Rheinhessen, up 141,000 hectoliters, or 6%. The office noted that 2025 harvests in Rheinhessen and the Palatinate had fallen sharply from 2024 levels, which makes the year-over-year rebound look stronger.

Other expected increases from 2025 include Württemberg, up 32,000 hectoliters, or 4%, Rheingau, up 34,000 hectoliters, or 20%, Hessische Bergstraße, up 7,000 hectoliters, or 26%, and Mittelrhein, up 2,000 hectoliters, or 8%.

Not all regions are expected to improve. Destatis estimates that harvest volumes will decline this year in the Mosel, down 119,000 hectoliters, or 16%, in Franconia, down 73,000 hectoliters, or 19%, in Ahr, down 17,000 hectoliters, or 50%, in Saale-Unstrut, down 13,000 hectoliters, or 22%, and in Saxony, down 4,000 hectoliters, or 14%.

The 2026 harvest is expected to remain dominated by white varieties. Destatis said 5.6 million hectoliters, or 70%, of the total should be white must, while 2.4 million hectoliters, or 30%, should be red must. White production is especially dominant in Mosel, where it accounts for 90% of expected output, in Rheingau at 86%, and in Franconia at 85%. Red must is expected to make up the larger share in Ahr, at 77%, and in Württemberg, at 65%.

Among grape varieties, Riesling is expected to post a clear increase. Destatis said the harvest of Germany’s leading Riesling grape is projected to rise by 140,000 hectoliters, or 8%, to 1.8 million hectoliters. Dornfelder, a red variety, is also expected to record a notable gain, rising 9% to 601,000 hectoliters.

Some other varieties are forecast to decline. Destatis said the white Grüner Silvaner crop is expected to fall 5% to 304,000 hectoliters, while Blauer Portugieser, a red variety, is projected to decline 3% to 173,000 hectoliters.

The statistical office said the estimate should be read with caution because it is based on survey responses before the harvest is fully finished and includes assumptions about the rest of the growing and weather season. It also said climate change is increasing the frequency and duration of extreme weather events, raising the risk from late frosts, hail, storms and heavy rain, with effects that can vary sharply from one location to another.

The September estimate for Germany covers Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, Hesse, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia. It does not include Brandenburg, Lower Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia or Schleswig-Holstein. Destatis said those four states were part of the final 2025 harvest totals used for comparison, but together accounted for only 0.07% of last year’s national harvest.