Veneto Expects 2026 Grape Harvest to Hold Near Last Year’s Level

Veneto is heading into the 2026 grape harvest with a crop that is expected to be broadly stable or slightly lower than last year, even as heat and drought reshape output among the region’s main varieties.

That outlook emerged from the 52nd edition of the Trittico Vitivinicolo, a forecasting event organized by the Veneto regional government and Veneto Agricoltura with CREA and ARPAV, and reported by Veneto Orientale Informazione on August 10. The forecast does not provide a single central estimate for 2026 production, but it points to a regional result that should be close to, or modestly below, the 14.7 million quintals of grapes harvested in 2025.

The regional total masks a split between white and red varieties that could affect the composition of this year’s output. Pinot Grigio and Chardonnay are expected to decline by 1% to 3%, while Merlot and Cabernet are forecast to rise by 3%. That leaves a gap of roughly four to six percentage points between some of Veneto’s leading white grapes and its main reds, a notable shift in a region where production volumes often draw the most attention.

The growing season has been marked by sustained heat and a lack of rain. According to the forecast presented at the event, high temperatures and drought have caused widespread water stress in vineyards across the region, weighing on yields. Part of that effect has been offset by a small increase in vineyard area entering production, up 0.5%, but that gain has not been enough to erase concerns tied to the weather.

The harvest is also starting early. Producers in Veneto began picking grapes in early August, about eight to 10 days ahead of the usual calendar. That earlier start reflects the pace of ripening under hot conditions and adds pressure to growers who must decide when to pick in order to balance sugar accumulation, acidity and fruit health.

Eastern Veneto, along with other parts of the region, appears so far to have absorbed the season’s stress relatively well, according to the information presented at the Trittico Vitivinicolo. Even so, the report describes a complex picture that varies from province to province. Local conditions, including the intensity of heat and the distribution of rainfall, have produced different outcomes across vineyard areas rather than a single regional pattern.

Storms have added another layer of uncertainty. The season has included intense but still limited hail events, which have not yet been described as broadly destructive at the regional level. The forecast remains partial and subject to change, especially if the current heat persists or if larger storms arrive close to harvest, when mature grapes are more exposed to damage.

On vineyard health, the assessment is more reassuring. The report says the phytosanitary situation is fairly uniform and positive across Veneto. Flavescence dorée and esca disease have created problems in some vineyards, but lower rainfall has helped curb the spread of downy mildew and powdery mildew. As a result, grape quality is expected to range from good to excellent across the region, at least at this stage of the season.

That quality outlook is important in a region that plays a central role in Italian wine production, but the weather still leaves open key questions about the character of the fruit. Industry observers are watching for possible effects of the heat wave on the acid-sugar balance in the grapes, an issue that can influence style and freshness, especially in white wines. They are also monitoring the risk of late summer thunderstorms, which could affect berries that are already close to maturity.

For now, the 2026 harvest in Veneto is shaping up less as a story of collapse or abundance than of adjustment. The region appears likely to hold near last year’s production level in physical terms, but with a different internal mix as some major white varieties soften and leading reds improve. The forecast released this week does not include estimates for wine volumes, prices or value, leaving the market to focus first on how the next few weeks of heat and possible storms will shape the final result in the vineyards.