U.K. wine sellers expect Christmas shoppers to buy fewer bottles but pay more per bottle

U.K. wine retailers and importers are entering the 2026 Christmas selling season with cautious optimism, saying shoppers are still willing to spend more on a good bottle even as broader household budgets remain under pressure.

Industry executives told trade publication Drinks Retailing that they expect many consumers to buy fewer bottles overall this holiday season but to pay more for the bottles they do choose, especially for Christmas meals, entertaining and gifts. The pattern, they said, points to a more selective market rather than a broad pullback in seasonal wine spending.

Christmas is the most important period of the year for much of the wine trade in Britain. The Bank of England estimates that U.K. households spend almost 30% more on food and drink in December than in a typical month, with spending on alcoholic drinks rising by about 38%. That makes the final weeks of the year a key test for pricing, promotions and inventory decisions across wine and the wider beverage business.

Rebecca Vernon, head of retail at Lanchester Wines, said shoppers are moving away from outright luxury and toward what she described as value-led premium purchases. Daisy Shepherdson, head of range at Laithwaites, said customers remain highly aware of value but still want Christmas to feel special.

Research firm NIQ said holiday demand for wine has so far proved resilient. Luis Ancona Gómez, senior insights analyst at NIQ, said shoppers are becoming more selective rather than abandoning seasonal spending. In his view, they are buying fewer bottles but are still prepared to invest in quality for key Christmas occasions.

Recent data supports that view. According to NIQ, wines priced above £10 outperformed the overall wine market in each of the last two Christmas periods. That segment grew 11.4% compared with 3.2% for the total market in Christmas 2024, and 8.5% compared with 1.4% for the total market in Christmas 2025. Its share of total light wine sales also rose from 10.2% in Christmas 2023 to 11.8% in Christmas 2025.

The shift became clearer in the final stretch before Christmas last year. NIQ said that in the week before the holiday, wines priced above £13 reached a 14% share, while the £12-13 segment also gained ground and lower-priced tiers weakened. Sophie Wren, marketing director at Hatch Mansfield, said the average selling price of wine in the four weeks leading up to Christmas is typically above the 52-week average.

Retailers said the trend has a limit. Elizabeth Newman, retail managing director at Majestic, said the chain is already seeing shoppers put one fewer bottle in the basket while spending a little more on each bottle they buy. Vernon gave a similar assessment, saying some customers who might usually buy six bottles during a main grocery trip may instead buy three or four and trade up for Christmas Day or for gifting.

That change is helping define this year’s expected pricing sweet spots. Wren said the £10-15 range is likely to remain important for volume because it sits above the average selling price while still feeling reachable for many households. Newman said Majestic expects strong demand at £12 and above, while also seeing interest in fine wines priced at £20 or more from customers looking for a standout bottle for family or guests.

Other suppliers see room for growth further up the ladder. Wren said the £15-20 segment is growing from a smaller base, supported by consumers looking for better quality without moving into much higher price points. Clare Cutler, sales director for off-trade national accounts at Hallgarten, said that range benefits from an at-home premiumization effect, as some shoppers compare the cost of a restaurant or pub drink with the value of buying a better bottle to enjoy at home. Wren said the £30-50 bracket remains solid among engaged wine buyers, while Hallgarten business development director Joshua Butler said the £35-50 range should stay steady for gifts and Christmas Day purchases.

Gifting remains another support for the category. NIQ said wine is still the most gifted alcohol category in the U.K., with 21% of shoppers buying wine as a Christmas gift and 40% buying alcohol gifts overall. Gómez said consumers are becoming more thoughtful in those purchases and are choosing bottles they believe the recipient will genuinely appreciate. Newman said shoppers are showing less interest in generic gift sets and more interest in bottles with a clear story or heritage.

Justin Liddle, managing director of wine importer Mentzendorff, said he expects the “fewer but better” mindset to continue this year, with shoppers favoring trusted brands and wines tied to important festive moments. Sarah Pollard, head of marketing at Gonzalez Byass UK, said buyers are not trading up indiscriminately but are instead looking for quality, provenance and reliability at a price they see as fair.

The expected pattern matters beyond retailers’ holiday sales. If shoppers continue to concentrate spending on fewer, higher-value bottles, wine suppliers, importers and producers may need to adjust assortment, stock levels and pricing plans for one of the most important trading periods in a major export market. The same holiday spending behavior can also shape decisions across other beverage categories as merchants decide how much space and promotional support to give to premium wines versus beer, spirits and lower-priced options.

Retailers are also preparing for a late surge in demand. Newman said Majestic expects Christmas shopping to come late again this year and said she would be surprised if Dec. 23 is not the company’s biggest trading day of the season.