Argentine wine production rises in 2025 but bulk prices fall amid stable stocks

The 2025 wine and must production season in Argentina closed with higher volumes but lower prices, according to final figures released by the National Institute of Viticulture (INV). Wineries processed 1.95 billion kilograms of grapes, resulting in 1.058 billion liters of new wine and 405 million liters of must. The must volume represents 26% of the total harvest, marking the highest level of diversification in the last five years.

In addition to this year’s production, there are 615 million liters of old wine stored in cellars. This brings the total available wine stock to 1.673 billion liters. After accounting for about 4% used for industrial purposes such as vinegar or alcohol, the adjusted supply stands at 1.6 billion liters. This volume is intended to meet both domestic and export demand.

Historically, around 80% of Argentine wine is consumed domestically, while the remaining 20% is exported in various formats and packaging. Although data for May, the final month of the 2024/25 season, is still pending, projections suggest that total sales will reach approximately 965 million liters.

Looking ahead to the next season, if demand increases by an estimated 3.5%, the adjusted wine stock as of June 1, 2026, would be about 600 million liters. This figure corresponds to roughly 7.2 months of sales and is only slightly lower—by about 1.5%—than last year’s level. This suggests that overall availability remains stable.

Despite this balance in supply and demand, prices in the bulk wine market have dropped sharply. Data from the Mendoza Stock Exchange show that real prices for wine products fell by 30% in May 2025 compared to May 2024. Even when compared to November 2024, after the risk period for late frosts had passed, average prices are down by about 15%.

Industry experts point to three main factors influencing these price trends: available stock levels, interest rates (since wine can be stored), and expectations for future demand. The current stock situation is similar to last year’s, and interest rates for short-term deposits remain steady but are trending downward as inflation expectations ease.

Based on these factors, analysts estimate that current bulk wine prices are at least 15% below where they should be in real terms. The gap could widen further if there are changes in weather or health conditions affecting the next harvest, which could impact supply and potentially lead to a price recovery.

The Argentine wine sector faces a complex scenario as it heads into the next season. While production volumes are up and stocks remain stable, falling prices reflect uncertainty about future demand and broader economic conditions. Growers and wineries are watching closely for any shifts that could affect both domestic consumption and export opportunities in the coming year.