Global wine output forecast at 227-235 million hectoliters in 2024

The International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) marked the centenary of its foundational treaty on Friday, November 29, 2024. During a commemorative event, the organization's Director General, John Barker, presented preliminary findings from an extensive analysis of the global wine sector's evolution over the past century. This study, based on data from 79 wine-producing countries, examines trends in production, consumption, and trade, alongside the impacts of recent challenges such as climate change and global economic fluctuations. Barker also unveiled the OIV's new strategic plan, set to be publicly released in early 2025.

At the event, Giorgio Delgrosso, head of the OIV's Statistics Department, shared early estimates for global wine production in 2024, projecting a continued decline. The expected volume ranges between 227 and 235 million hectoliters, averaging 231 million, a 2% drop from 2023 and 13% below the ten-year average. This marks the lowest global production since 1961, when 220 million hectoliters were recorded.

In the European Union, which accounts for about 60% of global production, the total volume is estimated at 139 million hectoliters, excluding musts and juices. This figure represents a decrease of 4.8 million hectoliters compared to 2023 and is 11% lower than the five-year average. Extreme weather events, including prolonged droughts, heavy rains, and storms, significantly impacted both the quantity and quality of harvests across various regions.

Italy reclaimed its position as the world's leading wine producer, with an estimated output of 41 million hectoliters in 2024, a 7% increase over 2023. However, this remains 13% below its five-year average. Northern Italian vineyards suffered substantial hailstorm damage, reducing yields. In France, production is forecast at 36.9 million hectoliters, a steep 23% drop from the previous year and 16% below its five-year average. This is the lowest level since 2017, attributed to excessive rainfall, disease outbreaks, poor flowering conditions, and prolonged droughts. Spain, meanwhile, saw an 18% increase in production compared to 2023, reaching 33.6 million hectoliters, though this remains 4% below its five-year average. Regions like Castilla-La Mancha and Extremadura led the recovery despite persistent water stress across much of the country.

Elsewhere in Europe, outcomes were mixed. Portugal maintained production close to its five-year average at 6.9 million hectoliters, though this represents an 8% decline from 2023. Hungary experienced a significant 22% increase, producing 3 million hectoliters, 19% above its five-year average and the highest level since 2010. Germany's production is estimated at 8.1 million hectoliters, 6% lower than in 2023 and 5% below its five-year average, impacted by late frosts and heavy summer rains. Romania and the Czech Republic recorded significant drops, with productions of 3.7 million and 0.3 million hectoliters respectively, reflecting declines of 20% and 28% from the previous year.

In the Northern Hemisphere outside the EU, the United States, the fourth-largest wine producer globally, is expected to produce 23.6 million hectoliters, a 3% decrease from 2023 and 1% below its five-year average. Russia is projected to see a modest 4% increase, reaching 4.7 million hectoliters, while Georgia anticipates a remarkable 27% rise to 2.4 million hectoliters, its highest level since the turn of the century, attributed to favorable weather conditions.

In the Southern Hemisphere, where the 2024 harvest concluded mid-year, production is expected to total 46 million hectoliters, 2% lower than 2023 and 12% below the five-year average. This marks the lowest output since 2004. Argentina leads recovery in South America, with 10.9 million hectoliters, a 23% increase from 2023, following improved conditions after a year of severe frosts and hailstorms. Chile and Brazil, however, face sharp declines, with estimated outputs of 9.3 million and 2.7 million hectoliters, down 15% and 25% respectively. In South Africa, production is projected at 8.8 million hectoliters, a 5% decline from the previous year due to flooding and vineyard diseases. Australia shows a slight 5% increase to 10.2 million hectoliters but remains 16% below its five-year average. New Zealand recorded a significant 21% decrease, with production at 2.8 million hectoliters, due to frost damage during flowering in the Marlborough region.

These figures underscore the complexity of the global wine sector in 2024, with extreme weather conditions and economic factors influencing outcomes in varied ways across producing regions.