France Raises 2026 Wine Harvest Forecast to 36.7 Million Hectolitres

France raised its forecast for the 2026 wine harvest on Friday, November 6, after better-than-expected yields in several major producing regions pushed the estimate above the level issued in October.

In a monthly report, the French farm ministry said output is now expected to reach 36.7 million hectolitres, up from 34.9 million hectolitres estimated in October. The new figure would put production 3% above the weak 2025 harvest, though still 10% below the 2021-2025 average.

The ministry’s statistics service, Agreste, said the revision was driven mainly by stronger yields than first expected in Languedoc-Roussillon and Charentes. Those two regions account for about half of France’s wine production. The ministry also cited improved expectations in Champagne and the South-East.

The higher forecast matters beyond agriculture because France is one of the world’s largest wine producers, and a change in its crop outlook can shift supply expectations for wine merchants, bottlers, importers and other beverage companies. At the same time, the sharp differences between regions suggest that any increase in total volume may not translate evenly across wine categories or price segments.

France is the world’s second-largest wine producer after Italy. Even with the upward revision, the ministry said the 2026 crop has been held back by a reduction in vineyard area under a vine-pull program, as well as by summer heat and drought that cut yields, especially in northern wine regions.

Champagne remained one of the weakest spots in the outlook. Production there is still expected to fall 38% from 2025 after frost, hail, drought and summer heatwaves affected the region. In Champagne, however, the number of bottles eventually released to the market is not determined by harvest size alone. Reuters reported that annual market volumes are decided by the regional industry body, which considers production in the area along with other factors such as global demand.

Other northern and central regions also face declines. Burgundy-Beaujolais output is forecast to drop 22% from 2025, while Loire production is expected to fall 7%.

By contrast, the largest improvement came from the south. Languedoc-Roussillon output is now seen rising 25% from a very weak 2025 harvest, after late-summer rain helped limit drought damage. In October, the ministry had expected only a 2% increase in that region. The revised estimate suggests that weather later in the growing season brought more relief than officials had first anticipated.

Bordeaux is also expected to post a recovery from the prior year, with production forecast to rise 10% from 2025. Even so, Bordeaux output would still stand 11% below the five-year average, partly because of vineyard removals.

The report points to a mixed national picture: some of France’s biggest wine areas have recovered enough to lift the overall crop estimate, but structural cuts in planted area and increasingly difficult weather continue to weigh on output. That split could shape how much wine is available from different regions over the coming months, even if the national total now looks stronger than it did a month ago.

A hectolitre equals 100 liters, or about 133 standard wine bottles. At the revised forecast, France’s 2026 production would amount to the equivalent of roughly 4.9 billion bottles, though actual commercial supply varies by region, appellation rules, reserve stocks and industry decisions on how much wine is released to the market.

The ministry’s update underscores how quickly the outlook can change during the final stages of the harvest season. Better field results in a handful of large-producing areas were enough to raise the national estimate sharply from October, but the report also showed continued pressure from heat, drought and a smaller vineyard base across parts of the country.