Italy’s wine industry contributes €40.7 billion to the economy, report finds

Italy’s wine sector and its broader supply chain generate €40.7 billion for the economy when indirect and induced effects are included, equal to 2.1% of the country’s GDP, according to a new strategic report presented by The European House Ambrosetti at the final Community Visione Vino forum in Voghera, in Lombardy’s Oltrepò Pavese wine district.

The report, titled “Visione Vino 2026 - Deep Roots, Distant Gaze,” sets out a picture of a sector that remains one of Italy’s strongest agricultural and export industries but now operates under growing pressure from climate change, geopolitical instability, smaller average company size, labor and skills shortages, generational turnover and new patterns of consumption. Its main recommendations call for stronger business networks and alliances, more investment in innovation and digital tools, a structured plan to develop skills and attract specialized workers, coordinated international promotion and a broader effort to present wine as a cultural and territorial asset rather than only a product.

The report says Italy’s wine sector generated €16.5 billion in revenue in 2025 and €4.7 billion in direct value added. It counted 681,000 hectares of vineyards across all regions and 530 protected origin and geographical indication certifications. When the broader chain is included, revenue rises to €36.8 billion and direct value added to €15.1 billion. Factoring in indirect and induced effects brings the total economic contribution to €40.7 billion.

Ambrosetti said wine has a direct impact on four economic activity codes and an indirect impact on 10 others, which the group grouped into intermediation, distribution, food service and business support services. Intermediation, distribution and restaurants alone generate €10.4 billion in value added, on top of the €4.7 billion produced directly by the wine sector. The report puts the economic multiplier of the extended wine chain at 2.7, meaning that for every €1 of direct value added, another €1.70 is activated in the rest of the economy. That is higher than the 2.5 multiplier calculated for the broader agrifood chain.

The forum in Voghera also focused on the risks facing the sector. Ambrosetti said the global uncertainty index reached a historic high in 2025, at 8.5 times its 1990 level. In a March 2026 survey by the group’s food and beverage community, 7 out of 10 companies said they were worried about their operations, with the impact on small and medium-sized businesses 6.4 times greater than on larger companies.

Climate was identified as the most visible structural threat. Over the past decade, economic losses linked to climate events in the European Union have risen 2.8 times, the report said, and Italy ranks first in the EU with €13.4 billion in annual damage. In 2025, 46% of European companies were hit by climate events. In Italy, only 10% of agricultural land is insured against climate risks, compared with a 42% EU average.

For wine areas, the data were more specific. In the first six months of 2026, Italian wine-growing municipalities recorded an average temperature anomaly of +2.4 degrees Celsius compared with the 1961-1990 period, with sharper increases in northern Italy at +2.8 degrees and central Italy at +2.5 degrees. The report cited estimates that up to 90% of traditional vineyard areas in lowland and coastal parts of Spain, Italy and Greece could be at risk by the end of the century, mainly because of drought and heat waves. At the same time, warmer conditions are improving the suitability of places that were once considered marginal for viticulture. In the United Kingdom, vineyard area in production rose from about 1,300 hectares in 2012 to 3,400 hectares in 2023, and northern France is also seeing new potential.

Despite those pressures, Italian wine exports have doubled in value over 15 years, from €3.9 billion in 2010 to €7.8 billion in 2025, with average annual growth of 4.7%, the report said. But the pace has slowed. Exports fell 3.7% in 2025 from 2024, and Istat data cited in the discussion showed a further 5.3% drop in the first seven months of 2026 from the same period a year earlier. The United States, Germany and the United Kingdom still account for nearly half of all exports, and much of the decline was linked to weakness in those three markets, including tariff-related problems in the U.S.

Even so, the report says Italian wine is less concentrated in a small number of foreign destinations than it was in the past. The top 10 export markets now account for 73% of the total, down 8 percentage points from 2010. Ambrosetti argued that room for growth remains large outside Europe. Italian wine exports amount to €44 per person in Switzerland, €18 in Belgium and €17 in Sweden, compared with about €0.10 in China, €0.01 in Indonesia and €0.002 in India. In one scenario developed by TEHA Group, if Italian wine exports to China reached €0.50 per person, sales there would exceed €700 million, or about 10 times the current level of €66 million.

The report also highlighted a sector that is still strongly based on family ownership. Family businesses hold 65% of the net worth of Italy’s wine sector, and that rises to 81.5% when cooperatives are included. According to the report, 30.4% of families in the sector have already completed generational succession, while 39.2% are in the middle of the process. Businesses that have completed the transition reported revenue growth of 8.8% and an 18% increase in investment.

That issue connects with a broader aging trend in agriculture. In Italy, 45% of farm business owners are older than 65, which is 10 percentage points above the EU average. The structure of the wine industry adds another constraint. Ambrosetti said 95% of wine companies are small businesses, and they account for 49% of total revenue. The export decline in 2025 was sharper in regions with a higher share of microenterprises, a sign, the report said, of a clear link between company size and international reach.

Consumer behavior is changing as well. TEHA estimates that only 14% of Italians under 35 drink wine with everyday meals, compared with 38% of people over 65. Among younger consumers, 50% associate wine mainly with special occasions, compared with 34% among older drinkers. The report says that shift should push the sector to rethink how wine is presented and explained, with more emphasis on place, landscape, people, culture, social life, know-how and quality.

Digital tools were presented as one possible answer, but adoption remains uneven. The report said 48.6% of wine consumers already use digital tools, mainly to search for information and reviews and to discover new wines and producers. Wineries identified e-commerce, through direct channels or marketplaces, as the main driver of revenue growth through 2030. At the same time, digital maturity remains limited. About half of wineries said they do not use artificial intelligence, and fewer than 5% identified e-commerce and digitalization as trends to monitor.

Wine tourism showed similar gaps between demand and business readiness. The report said 53% of consumers took part in at least one wine tourism activity over the past 12 months, and for 32.4% of wineries that business already accounts for more than 5% of revenue. About 40% of consumers already use artificial intelligence to plan wine tourism experiences or say they are very likely to do so, while only 31% of wineries have a defined digital strategy for that area.

Ambrosetti said the study was based on a representative survey of about 1,000 Italian consumers, a July 2026 survey of 72 wineries, an analysis of 14 economic activity codes and a review of Italian and international case studies. The first edition of the project was backed by Assolombarda, the Chamber of Commerce of Cremona-Mantua-Pavia, the Province of Pavia, Fondazione Monte di Lombardia, Gruppo Berlucchi, Business Strategies and Rina, with support from the Consorzio dei Vini di Oltrepò and Colline e Oltre.