Italy’s beer market is set to grow 2.5% in 2026, brewers say

Italy’s beer market is on track to end 2026 with volume growth of about 2.5% from 2025, according to Federico Sannella, president of AssoBirra, the Italian association of beer and malt producers, in comments published Thursday by Horeca Channel Italia.

The forecast points to a recovery in a market that, by the industry’s own account, started the year slowly before gaining momentum during the summer. Sannella said the market became more active after a very hot season lifted consumption, giving producers and distributors a stronger outlook for the final months of the year.

The projection refers to market volume for the full year, not revenue, and it remains a forecast rather than a final result. Neither AssoBirra nor the trade publication provided absolute sales volumes in the report, so the expected increase cannot be translated into additional hectoliters based on the information released.

Sannella’s comments suggest that weather played a major role in the improvement. He said the year opened at a slow pace but then improved significantly as high summer temperatures supported beer sales across Italy. The association sees that seasonal demand as one reason the market has remained “alive and active” after a weaker start.

At the same time, AssoBirra warned that the better trend does not remove deeper pressures on the sector. Sannella said the industry cannot count on extreme heat as a permanent support because such weather is abnormal. He said companies need to focus on the market’s underlying conditions as they look to 2027.

Those underlying conditions, he said, include changes in consumer behavior, inflation that is limiting household spending, and rising production costs. That combination points to a market that is showing volume resilience this year while still facing structural strain. The message from the industry group is that a favorable summer can lift demand for a period, but it does not resolve the financial pressure on consumers or the cost burden on brewers.

The comments come at a time when beer producers across Europe have been trying to balance softer discretionary spending with shifting demand patterns. In Italy, the issue appears especially relevant for on-premise consumption and seasonal sales, where weather can quickly influence results. The 2026 outlook described by AssoBirra reflects that dependence: a stronger-than-expected summer helped offset a weak opening to the year, but the association is not presenting the rebound as evidence that the market’s difficulties have passed.

Sannella also pointed to growth in no- and low-alcohol beer as one of the more promising parts of the market. He said that segment also began the year slowly but is now growing at a double-digit rate. According to his comments, no- and low-alcohol products now account for nearly 4% of the beer market in Italy.

He said that growth is being driven not only by producers pushing new products but also by stronger consumer demand. In his view, the category fits broader consumption trends tied to wellness and changing lifestyles. That makes it one of the few areas where the industry sees a clear expansion path beyond the weather-related lift that benefited the broader market this summer.

Even so, the no- and low-alcohol segment remains small relative to the total market. A share of nearly 4% suggests that traditional beer still dominates overall consumption in Italy, even as producers invest more in alternatives aimed at moderation and new drinking occasions. For breweries facing cost pressure and a more cautious consumer, that category could offer growth, but it is not yet large enough to redefine the market on its own.

Horeca Channel Italia published the comments as part of a report on summer beer sales in Italy. The trade outlet cited Sannella directly and presented the 2.5% figure as the expected year-end increase in volume. The article also referred to other market data, but the defined and attributable forecast from AssoBirra was the expectation of about 2.5% growth for 2026 as a whole.

Because the figure is a forecast, it could still change before year-end data are finalized. The article did not provide a breakdown by channel, region, or product type, and it did not say how much of the expected gain comes from bars and restaurants versus retail sales. That leaves open questions about where the recovery has been strongest and whether summer demand will be sustained through the last part of the year.

For now, the signal from Italy’s brewers is that 2026 has improved after a weak start and is likely to finish in positive territory in volume terms. The improvement appears closely tied to summer weather and to a seasonal pickup in consumption, while inflation, shifting habits, and higher input costs continue to weigh on the industry.